ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, MY TIGRESS FIRST RACE

STARSHIP SKY has shown better form the past few months and while that’s been on turf it’s also come primarily at this trip. In other words, the distance suits. She’s certainly bred to handle dirt and those factor, plus some class relief, may just do the trick. BIG PASSION showed speed sprinting and on the stretchout figures the one to catch. It’s her first time going this far but she is bred to go at least this far. KEEP IT CLASSY kept to her task to finish 2nd in a race like this here March 21, but she wasn’t really a threat at any point as she was beaten by 6 1/2 lengths. At least she’s shown she can handle this type of trip at this level and it’s not as if she’s facing much power.

SECOND RACE

JUSTIN’S QUEST was claimed for $35K by Yakteen 2 starts back, came back vs. $20K N3L foes here March 26 and was an OK 4th. They drop him quite a bit further and while they don’t give anything away out here that may be what this guy needs at this stage of the game. It’s at least encouraging Prat stays. KENZOU’S RHYTHM was a sharp 2nd at about this level here Feb. 7, his first start in over 9 months. He was claimed that day and came back to be a dull 5th vs. tougher but Treece moves him back in for a tag and that might be just what the Dr. ordered. It is a bit distressing, though, that you have to go back over 2 years to find his last win. FABOZZI was 3rd, albeit well beaten, vs. slight more expensive here March 19. That was at least a nice bounce-back after a dull turf try vs. tougher March 5. He has the tactical speed to be in it from the start.

THIRD RACE

BARRAZA was a decent 2nd here March 13. In fact, that run looks even better when you note the horse he chased, stablemate Triple Tap, is a highly promising brother to HOY and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. He faces no one like that here with the slight drop and that was also his first start in nearly 3 months so he can improve. SIR FLATTER was no threat in his dirt debut here Dec. 26 but not only can you always forgive a debut run, it came vs. tougher and he was away slowly. He hasn’t run since and returns as a gelding, with Lasix and a drop. All 5 sibs are winners including full-sis Rachel’s Temper (38-6-6-5, $401K, SW). DONCIC debuts with plenty of solid works for Lerner, who’s having a super meet. He also gets Prat, who’s done very well when teaming with Lerner the past 15 months or so (26%). His lone sib is Dubai Bobby (11-2-0-1. $67K).

FOURTH RACE

BRISTOL BAYOU looked like a new horse here March 28 as the filly, who had hinted at ability previously, put it all together to blast $20K maiden claimers. Miyadi saw fit to claim her, has strong numbers off the claim and moves her well up in value, a most encouraging sign. Of course, it’s first time vs. winners so that’s a hurdle but if she is a new filly she’s ready to this task. FLAT OUT JOY pressed the issue vs. $32K N3L foes at this trip here March 12 and stayed on for 3rd, though she was no threat in the lane (beaten 5 1/2 lengths).

That was her first start in a couple months so she can improve, and the fact Ellis does not drop her in price encourages. All her best work has come here. BALLET DE COUR stalked the pace before ending up a well-beaten 4th here March 12 but that was not only her first start vs. winners, it was her first action of any kind in over 8 months. She can benefit from that outing, has worked well since and it’s nice to see no big drop in price.

FIFTH RACE

DANCING DANA has been knocking on the door since last fall vs. winners and may be ready to break through and get that elusive 2nd win. She has ample tactical speed and her last 3 efforts at this level were smart, making her a proven commodity vs. this kind. SHANGHAI SUNRISE blasted maidens here Jan. 23 and then in her first start vs. winners (at this level) here March 14 was a solid 4th, not that far behind main rival DANCING DANA (2 lengths). She’s headed the right way. AGREETODISAGREE ran 5th behind the top 2 here

March 14, but she wasn’t THAT far behind the top 2 so she appears a solid fit. That said, her lone win came on turf. It is nice to see Prat take the call.

SIXTH RACE

GO DADDY GO has been facing tougher for over a year now so today’s class relief may be pivotal. After all, he ran well to be 2nd at LRC Dec. 20 and to be 3rd here Feb. 20. His last here March 28 wasn’t very pretty but not only was he facing tougher, he got away poorly. He looks spotted for action. INVICTATATUS has done his best work on turf but his 3 dirt starts last spring/summer weren’t bad and he appears to be a better horse now than he was then. The price increase is a good sign. WEDDING GROOM is a 3yo facing elders, no small task, but he may be the controlling speed and that could offset the age hurdle. He comes into this off 3 straight solid outings on this track.

SEVENTH RACE

GINJA set a pressured pace in her debut here Feb. 26 before ending up 4th. Still, considering the duel and that it was her debut that was a very smart run, one made to look even better when you note the winner (Soothsay) just won the G2 SA Oaks here last week. Baffert has strong 2nd-time-out numbers and slight drop helps, though she’s got to turn the tables on STRESSED who finished 3rd just ahead of her. Of course, STRESSED already had a race under her belt while that Feb. 26 run was this girl’s debut. Her 5 sibs to race are all winners including Top Decile (9-2-2-0, $520K, 2 G1 SPs). STRESSED remains a huge threat, though, as after that solid 3rd Feb. 26 she was a respectable 5th again vs. straight maidens here March 19. She drops a notch and her speed figures to have her in the thick of it from the start. STRESSED has 1 winner from 2 sibs, Sheesa Pontiac (33-4-7-4, $88K). BOWL OF CHERRIES ran 5th not far behind the top 2 when they met in that aforementioned Feb. 26 race. Her other 2 starts came on turf, but she handles dirt just fine. She drops and Ellis has superb numbers with this class move. All 8 sibs to race are winners including Shanghai Tariff (23-66-3, $426K, SW, 4 SPs).

EIGHTH RACE

LI’L GRAZEN dueled and paid the price in a race just like this here March 5, fading to 6th. However, Miller saw fit to claim her (has super off-the-claim numbers) and shortens her up a bit, which helps. Her speed figures to have her in it from the start. The last 2 times Prat was aboard the results were easy wins, both at this level. TIME FOR EBBY won that March 5 race in which the top pick ran 5th. She then found open allowance foes too much to handle but returns to a better level. Six of her 7 wins have come here. JAN JAN CAN looked good whipping $16K N2L claimers here Feb. 7 and was claimed by Ellis. She hasn’t run since, which is a bit disconcerting, though that worry is offset by the fact she returns with no tag attached. Her races over this track have been her best.

NINTH RACE

MY TIGRESS ran well in her first 2 starts, both in races like this, which stamp her a proven commodity at this trip at this level. She’s worked well since her 3rd as the 1-1 favorite here March 5 and Prat stays. MAMAS GOT CASH dueled in a race like this last June 13 but tired a bit late to end up 4th. That was still a good run. She hasn’t been seen since, which is a bit worrisome, but it’s nice to see no drop in price and that she’s worked in solid, steady fashion for this return. Her last run looks even better when you note 2 she faced came right back to win. UNCAGED KITTY debuts with smart works for a trainer who has super debut-win numbers. Her daddy was a multiple G1 sprint SW and all 4 of her sibs are winners including full-bro El Tigre Terrible (12-4-1-1, $220K, 2 SWS, SP)