ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, READY ORB NOT

FIRST RACE

ISLE OF WHITE is kin to Guildsman, who won on the turf both in Europe and in North America, capturing a Grade 3 race as a 3-year-old; this filly makes her U. S, debut for trainer Chad Brown, who is winning at 35% at the meet and at 28% with horses off this type of long layoff. EMIRATES AFFAIR adds blinkers and very much looks to be the one to catch; she gave way two back despite a loose lead but that may have been a race she needed, as it as her first start in over three months. MINGLEWOOD is kin to a pair of multiple winners on the grass and she debuts for trainer Christophe Clement, who is always a threat here with firsters; lures Gallardo, who took the lead in the jockeys’ standings here last week.

SECOND RACE

SARJENALLI was on the lead in her latest but she may well be at her best when she’s allowed to take back off the pace and make one run, as she did in her maiden score three back; seems to be enough pace to set her up if she does indeed revert to those tactics. BACI was an easy winner when switched back to dirt sprinting two back, and while that was against softer she is another who stands to benefit from the expected race flow; may well be at her best on this surface after all. PRINCESS LIVIA was shelved after the claim but she fits well with these in her first start back; clearly has to be respected off that last figure.

THIRD RACE

WICKED STRONG ALEX gets a tepid nod in this sprint, as his overall record makes it tough to take a short price on the win end, but he has been running well in defeat and this does seem to be a relatively soft field; should be well spotted just off the speeds from his inside post. SUPER EDGAR was no threat in a turf sprint last time after a slow start left him with too much to do but he could prove a late threat at a square price today; his oneturn races aren’t bad at all and he should get at least some pace help. TRUE GRACE could be the one to catch despite the turnback from routes; looms a short price today despite the switch to 10-pound bug Eduviel Ignacio.

FOURTH RACE

LIL GREEN MACHINE was off the board as the favorite in his first start for this tag last time out but he ran a decent race in defeat, pressing or setting the pace from the start and weakening only late; resulting Beyer gives him credibility in this spot. VALUABLE PILLOW has had his chances (18) but most of those recent tries were on the grass, and going long; may appreciate the switch back to sprinting on the main track. D TACHYON is easy to like after running 2nd under these conditions last time out, even if it was a short field and he benefited from a perfect stalking trip.

FIFTH RACE

SOUL REFLECTION went down as the favorite in each of his last two starts but he lost his best chance at the start last time when he was away slowly, and two back he was very game in defeat, pressing the pace from the start and missing by less than a length in a race which set up well for the closers; threat to steal it. SUN SQUALL met better in each of his last two starts and he looms a major player here on the class drop; steady Beyers add to the appeal. PRETTY CHITU has speed and the rail and will take them as far as he can on the front end if he’s able to break alertly.

SIXTH RACE

READY ORB NOT makes her seasonal debut today, and while the layoff can be considered a knock she has run well enough off breaks in the past and this closer seems to land in a very favorable spot in terms of pace, with several speeds lined up; barn best with claimers sprinting on the main track. PEACEFUL WAY has proven speed but she did rate with some success in her career debut, when sent seven furlongs; dangerous with that type of trip behind what is expected to be a lively pace. R AVERIE LYNN has yet to show she can take back

and pass horses late, and now she adds blinkers, making her strategy pretty clear cut; class relief a plus but she will have to work hard to clear this field early on.

SEVENTH RACE

MONAD ran a solid race for the show in that last one, finishing within five lengths of the winner despite a slow start; now switches to Gallardo in her second start off the layoff, which is a profitable angle for the barn. UPPER SPEED DS has been turfing of late but though she was off the board in all of her three starts on the main track to start her career this is the first dirt route try of her career; she showed late interest in those sprints and she figures to be running late this afternoon as she drops to her lowest level yet. MAY BEAU is clearly one to consider after running 2nd under these conditions in her latest; off the board two back but she was at a decided disadvantage in terms of race flow there as a closer in a race with an extreme edge to speed.

EIGHTH RACE

SEE ME SEE YOU rushed up to press the pace after a slow start in that last one, and though she weakened late that was a better effort than the running line may indicate; resulting Beyer gives her strong credibility in this sprint, and she’ll be especially tough here if she can take back off the pace and make one run. GALIT JAK was hurt by a slow start last time out, and two back she was against a speed-friendly race flow; best Beyers make her a threat with these. SHARON’S LAW has been routing but she has run well sprinting in the past; she was on the lead in her last couple but can be expected to be coming from off the pace on this turnback.

NINTH RACE

TONY SMALL is easily forgiven for that failed effort on the turf last time and he returns to sprinting today, and this does appear to be his best distance; will need pace help, as usual, but there does seem to be plenty of speed to his outside to set up a late run. LIBERTARIAN was a game winner in a similar spot last time, and now gets a little more ground, which he has handled in the past; obviously a threat off that last line, and given the expected race flow. FOURTH DESIGN is another who should benefit from the likely pace scenario, as he did when 2nd in his latest; has the tactical speed to get the jump on the stone closers.