ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, WIN WORTHY

FIRST RACE

HIGH TIDE was better last out than his on-paper running line, closing fastest in a slow-paced race dominated by forwardly placed horses. Seems to be headed the right direction again, making last fall’s 11-furlong showing, possibly a career-best, pertinent to this stretch back out to a “marathon” distance. JOB SECURITY is a “maybe, but probably not” on turf; if rained onto dirt, however, his grinding, main-track style could prove effective. Can’t get there with YAMATO at a presumably short price. Superior speed figures, and he did lose plenty of ground last out, but had zero late spark, a signal that he might be on the down side of the sharp peak he came to last fall and winter.

SECOND RACE

Maybe it’s just a curiosity, but with 12 victories, YES I’M EVIL has more wins than the rest of the field combined. Maybe - but it also speaks to the notion that this $40K tag might not be too high for a mare that’s run in a lot of $5K starter-allowance races while her opponents have done their better work, in great part, against conditioned claimers. Her last-out win represented a meaningful step up and perhaps she can’t repeat it, but one significant change was having an actual pace in front of her that day. Short field but that could happen again with the two likely favorites, GOLDEN CURL and RESURRECTION ROAD, possibly hooking up. Golden Curl did wire a 7f MSW two springs ago and could shake loose and lead all the way from post 1 - I just couldn’t count on her doing so at the likely short price. Resurrection Road might have turned the corner when blinkers were added, but she also hasn’t raced since November.

THIRD RACE

WIN WORTHY was 26-1 in his debut but ran a very strong race to be second on LA Derby Day. Somewhat a product of circumstance but did end up losing a lot of ground on the far turn while sharply improving position into the homestretch, beaten only by well-bred Hidden Enemy, who came into that start with several excuses. Jury still out on overall strength of that MSW but WW has come back with two KEE breezes and might, with REALM OF LAW entered, wind up close to a fair price. Realm of Law did turn in an encouraging debut performance at a 6f distance likely short of his best (sire and dam route horses), and the work pattern for his 3yo debut encourages. Is drawn wide and likely to be overbet given connections. Not sure READY TO POUNCE is a great stretch-out candidate, especially re-watching the FG debut and seeing the shape of his body, but he did finish well there after being pinched back to the rear just after the start.

FOURTH RACE

FRONT MAN cuts back from short routes, which is what I prefer in these “Beard Course” races, and while his dirt record causes some concern, he might not be much worse on dirt than synthetic - if at all. Drops $20K below the last claim price paid - not good - but comes into this off a nearbullet 5f CD drill and has little to beat in this $20K N2L claimer. Possible HARD STING will be favored here - maybe he deserves it. Not a bad effort April 7 when he faded late going two turns over the local loam, but his win - albeit a romp - came in a lowly $10K maiden at LRL, his near miss three back in a spot comparable to this, on a wet track. Suppose KICKIN’ KIRBY will lead and in the end there are only five to hold off, but he consistently fades, needed 15 tries to win a maiden race, and did so for only a $10K tag.

FIFTH RACE

SNOW HOUSE didn’t have much of a trip in his debut, stuck inside, shuffled back twice, and mildly blocked in upper stretch. Once finally clear he finished with good energy, and expect a highly competitive performance second time out. PURPLE DREAM a flashy, sustained run for second in debut, but how will that Tapeta sprint translate to a turf route? Price has to be a guide with questions like this, though lone sibling to race, Nepal Up (by Will Take Charge), was a capable grass route horse. Runner-up in that Turfway race, Jerry’s Secret, was trounced Saturday at KEE but might not have handled first dirt start. PREGAME took a considerable step forward last out when switched to turf and we’ve already seen trainer Rusty Arnold have horses like this coming ready into their KEE starts.