ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 4, PLAYOFF BOUND

FIRST RACE

INDIA WILKES has never missed the board going this distance and against this group that has to count for something. What if 4 1/2 furlongs 1 and 3 back was just a tad short for this filly? A better break would help more than anything. This filly is a beaten favorite in 3 straight and that helps her odds today, right? OYE COMO VA has some speed and draws the rail in a shortened sprint. This mare is often a decent price. We like that she puts 5 races together and remember that she is a 6YO with only 9 career starts. LAURA BELLE has speed therefore a chance. Big odds of late helps with the price today.

SECOND RACE

PLEASE DO TELL is a new route horse that just ran better. He is often a big price and the class hike today will fatten his value a tad more. He draws better today. EARNEST is working well while returning off the long layoff. The former doesn’t scare us in the least. This barn is 18% with new runners and 17% off a long layoff. This gelding has only tried a real dirt surface twice but he got a 66 Beyer in one of them. FISHEL did run OK on the dirt five back and that was off a layoff. We think this guy is better on the sod but this turf course is closed until at least the 23rd (plus the meet ends soon).

THIRD RACE

TOP OF THE GAME has only run poorly once in his six local starts and that came on the turf three back which is easily dismissed. At his best, this gelding is capable of a Beyer speed figure in the low 80’s which certainly fits here. This gelding has some tactical speed and faces only five foes so a good trip is almost assured. GRAY ADMIRAL just ran a Beyer top and did so for the leading barn. This gelding has some speed and could get the jump on all of these. Class jump and chalky price give us cause to pause though. THE PUBLIC HALO has some speed and could prove a pace headache to our 2nd choice. Second time this dirt can’t hurt while current form is decent. What if this guy is actually better on the dirt? His turf breeding breeding is poor if that helps any.

FOURTH RACE

PLAYOFF BOUND got a needed confidence boost last out and that field was no pushover as this gelding was sent off at 16-1. We think he got a taste of winning and liked. With the turf course closed until the 23rd, connections find a tough spot on the dirt but this guy’s Beyer top on the dirt (79) is only a point below his overall top. What we are saying is that he is capable on any surface. Race flow is only average so no help there. BIG BARREL gets a better pace today. He has won twice on this dirt and loves a flat mile. PATRIOT DRIVE has solid figs and certainly fits at this level. Should his last race have been better as the favorite? If so, then maybe this guy might be going off form. On the other hand, he loves it here and goes second time this dirt. Troubled trainer adds to the mystery.

FIFTH RACE

SPUN LINE does like to win (7 of 29). Her last two starts at six furlongs she got figs of 66 and 70. That includes a win three back on the rail. Perhaps the jock switch to Juarez is telling as he is 3 for 6 for this barn. RED NOON RISING is in good form and has hit the exacta in 4 of 5 local starts. New barn is 0 for 12 off the claim though. Connections do find a spot where this mare can’t be claimed. HIT IT TWICE exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 71 and 56 (another finished 2nd with a 57 Beyer). Those sprint tries 3 and 4 back fit here. This barn is 0 for 16 off the claim.

SIXTH RACE

MAJOR MUNNINGS might be a decent price, draws the rail, has some speed, loves this distance, and has never missed the exacta on this dirt. CLASSY CLASS has the best Beyers, has won three straight, and goes for the leading

barn. The one to beat obviously. KELLER’S GOLD is better of late and cuts back a half furlong to his favorite distance.

SEVENTH RACE

MESANGE just keeps cashing checks and doing so with figs that figure. Would she actually make less if/when she clears this condition? She has lost as least 4 times as the favorite. So why pick her now? She gets a change of pace with the barn switch, draws nicely, and might be a new route horse. Plus, this field holds no world beaters. OWEN’S SHOT has some speed, draws the rail, and adds ground. We would not be shocked if this filly cleared off early and if so then she could prove troublesome to run down. LEMON ICE draws worst. Class drop for high percentage barn is the main selling point.

EIGHTH RACE

FOXRUN switched barns previously and didn’t miss a beat while wining at 6/5 versus similar. Why change now? This horse has speed and catches a race with an average pace. Plus, this gelding can run well without an early breather. OR maybe this gelding just responds best with Valenzuela up. E J’S GOLD broke last or second to last in his starts 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 back. In his most recent, he broke 1st and ran great losing the photo at 3-1. He draws outside once again. His most recent was a Beyer top at age 8 which is something you don’t see very often. GRAND AIR did not fire last out but it could have been a third race bounce. Here comes a good stalking trip for new connections. CHUCK NAZTY might blow up the tote.

NINTH RACE

ME has hit the board in five straight. He has improved his Beyer in four straight. Yet to actually win on this dirt is the main knock but then again this race didn’t come up very tough. KING LEBRON just ran much better at 12-1. Valenzuela stays put and maybe this gelding just likes that. Can this guy put good races back to back? BUMBLEBEE did run OK two and three back. Maybe the jock switch helps (1 for 1 for this barn). This gelding drew outside three back and ran fine so perhaps today’s outside post helps some. 1501 W. Bell Road Phoenix, AZ 85023 (602) 942-1101

Main track: One mile, oval.

Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 feet. Turf course: Seven furlongs.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION

■ Win, place, and show: 20%

■ Daily Double, Quinella and Exacta wagering: 21% ■ Trifecta, Pick 3, and Superfecta wagering: 25%