ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, UNICORN SALLY

FIRST RACE

WILD UNION was cut back for his NY debut last time and finished evenly while clearly second-best after getting outrun early; has been best going longer in the past gets more distance to work with as he drops again. LOKOYA ROAD’s two main track starts to date have both come in races originally scheduled for turf, but he has run well in both of those starts while earning the top two figures of his career; second off the layoff and entered for dirt for the first time in his career. PAINT MUSIC FOR ME has gone favored in each of his last three starts with only one win to show for it, that a blowout win over maiden claimers at Aqueduct; back to NY after going evenly at Parx last time.

SECOND RACE

SAIL BY a guess in a wide-open MSW for 2yo turf sprinters; debuts for an underrated firstout trainer and has pedigree, being by new sire Astern (a Group 1-winner turf sprinter in Australia for Godolphin and already has a debut winner from his first crop) from a dam who won her career debut on turf and is a sister to six-time turf winner Gliding By (also a debut winner). PAMMY’S READY made her debut at Keeneland and finished a no-threat 4th behind her impressive stablemate Ruthin (went off at 3:5); wasn’t rushed early in that spot as the winner made the lead but likely to be more aggressively handled this time. KODAMA also chased an easy and heavily-favored Wesley Ward debut winner on debut; went a bit greenly in that spot while chasing to no avail late.

THIRD RACE

UNICORN SALLY was entered way over her head when returned to NY off the short layoff 13 days ago and never made an impression while saving ground; her maiden win came on dirt late last year, but only after she endured a couple of tough trips on this surface, and she won back on turf shortly thereafter; back at the right level and will be a price. SABURAI has gotten wired in her first two NY starts and she did not get a particularly good ride last time after getting off to a good start but rating back in a race that was dominated on the lead; consistent mare can get a better trip this time. ALBA’S STAR earned an 80 Beyer when breaking her maiden early on, then won again shortly after returning from a long layoff when last seen; lightly-raced filly drops with speed and holds more upside than most in this field.

FOURTH RACE

BANKSAMILLION a half-sister to five winners from this dam, three of them debut winners, including the multiple Grade 1-placed sprinter Shoplifted; Mott doesn’t get the credit he deserves for his work with first-time starters - 15%, $2.31 ROI over the past five years with debut runners in dirt sprints; 16%, $2.33 ROI in that sample with 2yos over the past two years. KANT HURRY LOVE training steadily for an excellent debut trainer and pegged at a short price on the morning line; sire Kantharos clicks with 17% of his juvenile first-time starters and this filly is from the female family of multiple winners and $500k+ earners Candid Desire and Bonus Points. SARATOGA KISSES and ENDLESS CRUSADE own valuable experience in the form of a futile run behind blowout winner and subsequent Astoria victress Happy Soul (81 Beyers for both of those wins). SARATOGA KISSES ran the better race that day, but ENDLESS CRUSADE goes for a trainer who does much better with his secondtime starters.

FIFTH RACE

G C CAM made two starts last year, both sprinting on turf, and ran pretty well both times while never landing a serious blow. He broke slowly in his debut before racing on through the stretch vs. better, and he got stuck behind horses at a crucial point when dropped for his second start; returns as a new gelding while making his dirt debut. KIKKERLAND hit the board in three straight vs. maiden claimers for his prior trainer and earned ascending figures in those efforts while showing some speed; was defeated as the favorite off the claim last time after chasing a fast pace.