Lovestruck should be better at age 3

To be sure, Maxfield is a very, very good horse. And to be clear, “who did he beat” is a question often not worth asking. But, wow, has Maxfield made a career smashing inferior foes. Ghostlore, Gouverneur Morris, Ny Traffic, Sonneman, Sonneman again, Visitant – these are the second-place finishers in Maxfield’s six wins. Hardly a murderer’s row, and Maxfield likely is an odds-on favorite to win for the seventh time in eight starts Saturday at Churchill Downs in the weekend’s biggest race, the Stephen Foster at Churchill.

There’s another elite performer on Churchill’s card who might not be in as great a position as Maxfield; at Belmont, a comeback horse who might be overlooked; and at Woodbine, a bevy of Casses from which to choose in the Trillium.

Wild Applause

This is a good race for an age-restricted, ungraded $100,000 turf stakes and there are all sorts of places to turn in a diverse field. Minaun seems like the favorite off her very sharp North American debut for trainer Chad Brown on April 30 at Belmont, but while she might well get this mile trip, she’s never tried it and the pedigree says “miler at most.” At a short price, I’m willing to take her on.

Alda seems underrated, Bye Bye could carry her speed a mile, and there’s the European import Sussex Garden to consider, but I really like Lovestruck here at anything close to her 5-1 morning-line odds.

Lovestruck beat a decent group winning her career debut at Saratoga last summer at 2, posting a very strong finishing time despite bumping very hard with a foe at the three-sixteenths pole, and never feeling her rider’s crop. She came back in stakes competition over a chewed-up autumn course at Aqueduct and won very nicely again, this time beating Invincible Gal, who, you will notice, recently won the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico.

To my eye, Lovestruck looked more comfortable over the firmer footing at Saratoga than she did in her second start, and with only a slight chance of rain Saturday, she could get a quick course. Last year, she might have pulled slightly harder than ideal during her races, which means she has room to grow up and improve this season. Her work pattern for Hall of Famer Bill Mott encourages and I expect Lovestruck to start her 3-year-old campaign winning her third race.

Fleur de Lis

Why is Letruska running in this race? All credit to connections who have her in position, at this early juncture, to be champion older dirt female in 2021, but it was just three weeks ago, on a very hot day, that Letruska turned in a tour de force winning the Phipps at Belmont. That was her fourth start already in 2021, and while one can assume the trainer knows his horse better than some dude looking at a computer screen, it’s hard to see Letruska doing anything besides regressing in the Fleur de Lis.

And she can’t afford to do that – not against Envoutante, whom she gives two pounds in this field.

Envoutante loves Churchill, might take the race to Letruska from the start, has won well at this nine-furlong trip, and has gotten one week’s more recovery time than Letruska while not having to ship. Spice Is Nice might also have a shot, though I think she won’t prove up to the task, but Envoutante, as the second choice, is the Fleur de Lis play.

Trillium

Heavenly Curlin beat Crystal Glacier when the pair met last October at Woodbine in a Tapeta route allowance. The margin, though, was only a half-length, and Crystal Glacier, 12-1 on the morning line compared to 5-2 for Heavenly Curlin, is the play here.

Mark Case trains both these fillies as well as Skygaze, whom I think is in the race to set the pace, which will hurt the chances of morning-line favorite Souper Escape. Souper Escape won this race in 2020 but might need a start coming back from an extended layoff on Saturday. Merveilleux, 3-1 on the line, also could be slightly ringrusty and needed several races to find her best performances in 2020.

Heavenly Curlin got in a pair of longdistance turf tries over the winter at Gulfstream, but she, too, starts here without the aid of a prep race and has the look of a filly who will want a longer trip. I believe she’s a better horse than Crystal Glacier, but