ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MAGISTERIUM

FIRST RACE

PERPETUAL CHANGE ran well in his debut last October while losing some early position and then rallying from last to finishing a gaining 2nd; did not run well at all while wide off the layoff last time, though that was a pretty tough spot, now takes the drop with Lasix on. LITTLE RED BUTTON finished a decent 3rd behind a front-running winner when stretched out for the first time at Saratoga last summer, and she didn’t get the greatest ride in the world when tiring to finish 7th in her only other turf start before the break; chased and weakened when back on turf last time; ships in to face colts for an underrated trainer. GHOSTMON has earned three of the top figures in this field in his three turf starts, all of them at this level; did get shuffled a bit last time but didn’t think he had a huge excuse while outfinished at the end as the favorite, and he’s likely to get bet again.

SECOND RACE

LABARDE a More Than Ready colt from the multiple graded stakes-winning dam Eskenformoney showing up for his debut with a series of sharp works in tow; trainer having a strong meet from limited starters and he can have one ready to go right away. WINTER SON the lone colt with experience and, although that was a maiden claimer, he showed some run in that spot after breaking slowly; was forced to steady after running up on a rival on the turn, then went greenly in the stretch while tiring; trainer doesn’t win with many firsters but he is excellent after a race - past five years, 2yo, maiden, second start, dirt sprint: 14 for 54, 26%, $2.16 ROI. UP TO THE MARK by the excellent debut sire Not This Time and the first foal from his unraced dam, who is herself out of Grade 1 Test winner Capote Belle; Pletcher isn’t nearly as dangerous with this type as he was just a few years ago.

THIRD RACE

SHESALITTLE EDGY stepped up off the claim to make her NY debut and finished a good 2nd to the streaking Easy to Bless (five straight wins on dirt) after chasing that rival from the start; has to get seven but her tactical speed plays and a repeat of her last two efforts will make her tough. MISS LIANA has won three of her last four vs. weaker right on the front end; likely to come out running again off the claim for a hot barn and is dangerous if she can get comfortable up there. SHE ANSWERED lightly-raced enough to keep an eye on as she makes her second start off the layoff; was no threat behind SHESALITTLE EDGY last time after getting into position and she hasn’t shown a strong finish in her races to date, making the seven a bit of a question mark.

FOURTH RACE

COPPER TOWN was returning from a layoff last time when dropped in for $50k and he tried to make the lead from the start, only to find the fleet Aristocratic to be too fast for him early; still made a good run to contention after chasing, and only weakened late in a promising run off the bench; drops slightly again. VICI has settled for 2nd in five of his last seven starts on dirt, a surface he is 1 for 14 over in his career; was also an infrequent winner on turf throughout his career but he’s now 2 for 2 since being claimed by Atras and he is tactical. WIN WITH PRIDE in tough vs. this field, assuming everyone shows up; nothing to knock about his recent form and he is another with the tactical speed to land a trip as he steps up in class.

FIFTH RACE

MAGISTERIUM ran well in all four starts in England last year while showing handy speed, then wound up getting outpaced in her two six-furlong starts over here; was put on the lead going a mile last

time and proved to be no match late while racing on vs. better; looks tough in this spot as she cuts back slightly and drops. CONTAINED made an early move after a front-running winner when stretched out at Monmouth last October and she stayed on gamely in that spot while having no real chance to catch; had her seasonal debut rained off and overcame an awkward start to gamely prevail; upside.

GAMBLING CAT was a solid winner when stretched back out and rallying at Tampa two back, and she backed that race up fine last time despite being a fortunate recipient of a questionable stewards call; nice fit and Irad returns.

SIXTH RACE

EAST WING dropping for the first time while switching from turf to dirt and she has the figures to contend with this field already; clearly took a step forward while showing improved speed in her second start and she has faced much tougher in her three starts since. MYAWAYA’s lone win to date came by a nose but her overall form stacks up well with this bunch as she returns on the drop; been away a long time but long layoffs are the last thing you worry about with this trainer; might have simply found the right spot for her return. LOVE ME TOMORROW never wins but she is competitive with this field if bringing anything close to her good race; turf to dirt second off the claim and she is tactical from the outside.

SEVENTH RACE

Suppose this is just the right step back for the disappointing ROCKEMPEROR, who hasn’t won a race in over two years while facing much better horses - 8 of his 9 stateside starts have come vs. Grade 1 or Grade 2 company, and the other was the $1 million Saratoga Derby (now a Grade 1); likely too much for these but still not easy to take. JOURNEYMAN was making his first start in over a year in the finale on Belmont Stakes Day and ran well enough in that spot to consider here, even after conceding the early lead for no reason; don’t have to worry about the distance with him. DYNADRIVE went this distance two back and raced on evenly after coming wide to the stretch to earn his typical figure; closing-type needs a trip in order to be effective in this spot.

EIGHTH RACE

CLAIRIERE takes a step back after doing her best with a good trip and just missing 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks last time; gave off the impression of a filly that was still a work in progress while holding her own in graded company, and winning a Grade 2, earlier in the year; will have to put her experience to use in the face of morning-line favorite and apparent lone speed ALWAYS CARINA, who steps up off the back of two facile wins with the top two figures in the field; gets a sterner test here but she has the pace advantage and there’s no telling how good she is at this point. MAKE MISCHIEF an underrated NY-bred with four graded placings already under her belt, with her best effort yet coming in the Grade 1 Acorn last time; tactical filly may be forced to take up the chase after the favorite early on.

NINTH RACE

RUNAWAY RUMOUR stepping up following a pair of impressive wins to begin her career vs. fellow NY-breds, the second of those when stretched out last time and rolling from the back to close that field down under strong handling; back in just three weeks to face better but might be this good and she’ll be a price. MINAUN broke her maiden in a Group 3 last July before the layoff, that after a game run in her debut when forced to try a run up the rail late; stateside debut came sprinting vs. a weak field but she was impressive there while coming from last to first with a big finish. LOVESTRUCK won both 2yo starts despite giving off the impression that she was still figuring things out on the track, and she was also listed as a vet scratch between those races; makes a bit of a belated 3yo debut with forward to go and she is going to be tough in here with any improvement.

TENTH RACE

DAME TIME had her debut rained off the grass and finished a distant 3rd in the slop, but she showed some run in that spot after failing to break sharply from the gate and then getting caught behind horses early; though she finished a good third all things considered and she is bred for turf; trainer 3 for her last 8 with second-time starting maidens in turf sprints at Belmont (38%, $6.27 ROI). QUICK CONVERSATION and GAILHORSEWIND have traded decisions in their last two starts with the latter improved to finish a good 2nd in last time after working out a trip. QUICK CONVERSATION might not have gotten as lucky last time while on the outside all the way and then bothered in the stretch when a rival swerved out in front of her.