BEST BET: RACE 6, BIG SWEEP

FIRST RACE

RIVIERA CHAMP drops from maiden specialweight to maiden-50, stretches from a sprint to a route, and meets a field without much speed. His midpack finish last out was against better, ‘CHAMP can win with a front-running/pace-pressing trip for a stable that does well with stretch-out maidens. GET BACK GOLDIE also drops and stretches out. The difference is ‘GOLDIE is trying turf for the first time. The surface should be fine based on pedigree. Progeny of Goldencents win regularly on turf; ‘GOLDIE was produced by a Colonel John mare. Turf, top and bottom. ROY C finished near the back both starts vs. better, but now drops in for a tag for a productive trainer-jockey team. This could be a big day for trainer Peter Miller, with starters in seven races. LOOKOUT POINT goes first off the claim and returns to the surface on which he finished in the money his first three starts. Improvement likely returning to turf.

SECOND RACE

CALIFORNIA STREET crushed $20k claiming sprinters by more than eight lengths and was claimed while earning a stakes-caliber figure (99 Beyer). Although he benefitted from a surface favorable to horses racing on the rail, the win was huge, and the past five years Miller is 20-for-42 (48 percent) with first-off-the-claim dirt-sprint favorites. DEFENSE WINS was claimed from a lesser win ($20k claiming N3L) by a stable that also is rolling. Doug O’Neill entered the week having won with 4 of his last 6 f.o.c. starters. BEAR CHUM, overmatched in an allowance last out, returns to the claiming ranks and probably has more speed than the top two. PLAY CHICKEN finished only a half-length behind DEFENSE WINS last out.

THIRD RACE

PROUD PEDRO needed the start last month, he finished seventh in a minor stakes while racing for the first time since November. A two-time allowance winner last year (N1X, N2X), he returns in a N1X while running for the optional $50k claim tag. HIs two wins last year were at, or beyond, this mile and one-quarter distance. He is the “best horse” if he reproduces his 2020 form. OTTAWA FIRE ran well in his U.S. debut in July (beaten three lengths in a race that produced three next-out winners), but misfired next out. Freshened two months, he meets a N1X field that did not come up very tough. His effort two back would be good enough. Not sure about the mile and one-quarter trip, however. SECRET CLUB finished a respectable third last out while earning a career-high figure first start off the claim by Miller. This field is easier. LURE HIM IN has run races that put him in the hunt.

FOURTH RACE

Returning from a layoff of more than nine months, UNBROKEN STAR drops into a $25k claiming route against a modest field. His last two wins were on this racetrack, the presence of leading rider Flavien Prat indicates positive intent first start back. MONGOLIAN WIND also returns from a layoff, this being his first in five months. He has run well fresh, and should fire off the bench while facing only four rivals in this five-horse field. MAJOR CABBIE might be the one to catch in a small field without much speed. This is his first start since being claimed from a sprint at this level two months ago. ‘CABBIE has a chance to lead wire to wire if he can shake loose. That is a strong possibility. LUCK OF THE DRAW is a five-time winner. His speed figures are light, but he does win races.

FIFTH RACE

Runner-up as the favorite three straight, BIG SUMMER tires again as the favorite at the same Cal-bred maiden turf sprint level. She actually ran super last out. She pressed a hot pace, disposed of two pace rivals, and got collared by a closer from the back of the field. Although ‘SUMMER must stretch out to six and half, the longest distance of her career, she is the fastest in the field and gets an easier pace scenario. Graduation day for the bridesmaid? FEELING GRAZEFUL merits an upset chance switching to turf in her third start.

Her first two starts were runner-up finishes in low-rated maiden dirt sprints, but as a daughter of turf sire Grazen she could move up on grass.

KITTEN’S KID is not fast on numbers, but this is only her third start and she did hit the board her first two. PIAZZETTA runs like a filly that might want a longer distance. But she improved second out and should be rolling late at six and a half.

SIXTH RACE

The main knock regarding BIG SWEEP is price. The fastest in this N1X sprint on figures, she has sufficient speed to establish position from the inside post, she is a two-time stakes winner vs. Calbreds and simply the best filly in the field. ‘SWEEP stands out, on paper. QUEENGOL is second preference in a field without a legitimate alternative to the low-odds favorite. Her development this season at age 3 seems to have stalled, however. She earned the same modest figure all three starts. From her post near the outside, she will lay back and make a run. If the pace gets hot, she may have an upset chance. FOUNDER’S DAY has speed, and will press the front-runners to her inside including HONOR AMERICA and MAXIM STRIDER.

SEVENTH RACE

NEPTUNE’S STORM has run well against much better, he returns to the restricted stakes level at which he won three back, he has speed for a cozy trip positioned second, he wins more than his share (7 for 23) and is a four-time winner over this course. Another “live” starter for Miller. LAMBEAU is an interesting pace play, first start in five months. He runs well fresh, and is the speed of the field over a course on which 5 of the last 14 turf miles (through Sunday) were won by the pacesetter. None of those front-running winners were favorites. The question for LAMBEAU is surface. He tried turf only once, in his debut, and finished 10th. He is a better horse now, and virtually certain to make the lead. SHOOTERS SHOOT looms the upset candidate. Although his last two starts suggest he is off form, one was a G1 against the top sprinters in California, the other was a road trip to Charles Town where he simply misfired. He has trained exceptionally well since returning home, and could upset if he handles turf. He is not exactly bred for it, however. MAJESTIC EAGLE has run well against better. He will rally late.

EIGHTH RACE

SYNTHESIS benefits by an advantageous pace scenario in a N1X/optional claiming route without much speed. A front-runner/presser who won twice on this surface in winter/spring, he moves up in class and can be long gone out front. TOUCHDOWN BROWN scored a decisive win in a Cal-bed N1X last out, rallying from the back to win going away. The lightly raced (eight starts) 3yo gelding has had two months since that career-best effort, and will be finishing fast. His best races are in front of him. FAMILY BIZ, stablemate of the top choice, is a six-time winner stretching out first off the claim. BARBWIRE might be ranked too low by this handicapper. A 3yo who has raced just four times, he faces winners after a decent maiden win last out. Sharp works since that win suggest he remains in an upward pattern.

NINTH RACE

URBAN ran well finishing third in her career debut, then ran well again second out in a stakes race. She rallied from last to miss by only two lengths in a route won by the pacesetter. Solid effort. URBAN is back with maidens, back in a sprint, and looks tough from off the pace unless one of the new shooters fires big. First-time starter TONITO’S debuts with a work pattern that suggests she is “live.” This stable is not nd known for winning often with debut turf sprinters, but two fast recent works by TONITO’S suggests otherwise. VULIN adds blinkers and shortens to a sprint after racing greenly and finishing nowhere in her career debut around two turns. She probably is better than that eighth-place finish indicates. Her debut stablemate KJOS KID appears to have worked well at San Luis Rey Downs.