THIRD RACE

Path needed a race before winning and multiple G1-placed full sister Bonny South needed a couple as well as a distance of ground.

Of course I would prefer not to take GUANA CAY on top - she’ll be heavily bet and by entering her here for a $20K tag when she came close to getting stakesplaced and still is eligible for an N1X allowance, her connections are telling us something about her upside, if not her current form. That said, this is a homebred by a stallion with a published $10K fee, she’s managed only two starts this year, and she’s topped out at a 73 Beyer. So, the placement could be realistic as much as anything, and not only does she catch a soft spot, there’s little pace and she could dictate a slow tempo. So, here we are. Considered FLASHY BIZ for the top slot but she needs pace help and is such a rare winner, though do expect her to race competitively back on the preferred surface. Trainer Greg Foley has run five horses off a claim during 2021 - they’ve finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th, which is pretty good! BERTRADA claimed out of a dismal showing in a race at this class level last out but there’s no drop, a good sign, and she has older form to fit the spot.

FOURTH RACE

If not for the very rainy forecast and a decent chance this maiden race is moved to dirt, I’d have the top two selections reversed, but with some scratches WALHALLA could move into a better post than 12, which he drew, and he’s already shown he handles dirt. Was rained off in debut at Delaware and finished a very game second, coming back twice in the stretch after the odds-on favorite, exiting a creditable performance in an SAR turf MSW, threatened to pull clear. Finished 12 lengths clear of third and worked back. Dam, also trained by Stidham, was an excellent racehorse but her first three foals to race have been limited. Trainer Brad Cox is 19-6-0-1 this year alone (!) with 2yo first-time starters in turf-route MSWs, and NAVAL AVIATOR brings an impeccable work pattern into his first start. Maybe this is misguided but I prefer his chances on grass. And speaking of grass, it could really help TONKAWA SPRINGS, who was rained off last time after prepping for the turf route in an Ellis dirt sprint.

FIFTH RACE

FLAT AWESOME JENNY is a win machine, nine of them over the last two calendar years, and just showed she fits a race like this capturing her most recent start at Churchill. Ticks many more boxes: Win over the KEE track, seems to love the mud, and ought to get a favorable setup. CANADIAN GINGER and JUNGLE JUICE are two of the several serious early pace players but were one of them to get loose a front-running score is well within range. Canadian Ginger has a good wet-track record and should improve off her last-race comeback run, and while Jungle Juice slop-flopped at CD, that was her first try on a such a surface and not all wet track are created equal. She ran an excellent race at this level during the spring KEE meet.

SIXTH RACE

LAUGHING BOY was edged by CHEFFY when they met Oct. 2 at Churchill, and since LB gave way late in that race, his first over a trip as long as nine furlongs, it’s fair to wonder if he can stay this 9.5f trip. Reasons he might - came back on pretty short rest last time following a five-length maiden win, and in this start, unlike his last, he stands a good chance of opening a clear lead and controlling the pace. Cheffy dropped a clunker two back but otherwise has been progressive and lost meaningful ground last out after breaking from post 12. All that said, I’d guess his ceiling isn’t especially high. CARILLO thrown to the wolves in the Risen Star first race off the private purchase. His comeback run last out was modest but he does look like a staying kind of dirt horse and with only three starts there should be some upside.

SEVENTH RACE

Three creditable showings from KISS THE SKY to start his career, including a solid second behind LUCKY BOSS on dirt, which has to be considered here given the forecast. The SAR turf-route MSW he won wasn’t the strongest of the meet (horses behind him 9-0-3-2 combined in their subsequent starts, which include 7 MSWs, the G1 Hopeful, and a $50K MCL) but he came far forward at Kentucky Downs with the close second behind Tiz the Bomb, who won the Bourbon and is as serious 2yo grass horse. Been given plenty of time and five works between starts, but he’s obvious and from popular connections, and the win price will reflect that. Lucky Boss had an impossible post in the Bourbon, his turf debut, and is very much bred for grass, though on pedigree you’d think he maxes out at about a mile. The dirt form could come in handy here. VIVAR has finished with interest in both his starts and likely is stronger than his speed figures, but any odds boost you might get if that is the case gets lost because this is Cox / Rosario.

EIGHTH RACE

MAJESTIC D’ORO has two siblings to race, one who has raced competitively over 1 3/4 miles, the other more of a sprinter. This comes up because the inclination is just to put her fading fifth last out i the

Pocahontas down to an inability to stay two turns, even though her dam is by stamina influence Medaglia d’Oro. Average winning distance for the sire’s offspring, however, is just 6.2 furlongs, and I’ll guess this filly at least right now wants to stalk and pounce in sprints like this. She was a flashy debut winner at IND going 5.5f, has an encouraging work pattern since her last start, and ought to get a great trip sitting behind a hot, contested pace. SWEET DANI GIRL was 45-1 in her debut but definitely did not run like it. Fast and professional wearing down a hot favorite from the Cox barn who put more than seven lengths between herself and the show horse. Stalked leaders first out and this draw gives the rider options. JESTER CALLS NOJOY on the other hand is buried down at the fence with a pressured trip likely if she goes to the front. Wonder if they try taking back this time. You’d think a 10-length SAR MSW win would get something higher than a 78 Beyer, but if you look up the horses she beat in that romp, their very rough form backs up what the speed figure suggests.

NINTH RACE

The Valley View goes much deeper than it’s G1 sister race, the QE II run two Saturdays ago, and there is quality along with the depth. Have to side with BREAKER OF CHAINS, who was just so impressive winning her N American debut at KD last out. Missed the break and set herself a very difficult task yet won going away. Solid performance in Ireland, too, where she stayed nine furlongs going left handed on a soft course at Leopardstown - circumstances similar to what she’ll encounter in the Valley View. CRAZY BEAUTIFUL might or might not take to turf, but I have her second because if this race has to be moved to the main track, she’s easily the most likely winner. LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE acted up in the gate and wound up being scratched from the QE II. I liked here there and have to rate her a win chance here, too. The Natalma worked out to be a very decent race and her long-layoff comeback run, where she drew away late from capable older rivals, bodes well for her stakes prospect in an age-restricted stakes.

TENTH RACE

A very, very tough one to end the day. 16-race maidens aren’t my bag but do notice that CONTRACTOR BILL has two seconds from his two wet-track starts and has gotten only one try, his most recent start, in maiden-claiming competition. TENOR, who races at his lowest class level, comes out of turf routes, but look back to his career debut and see that he showed some dirt-sprint speed. Freshened up for the class drop; rail draw no bueno. BIKO’s claiming price halved, which helps, and so might the turn back in trip from route to extended sprint.