Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Euros have edge in tough race
DEL MAR, Calif. – It requires tremendous talent to get to the Breeders’ Cup Mile. It takes a whole lotta luck to win it.
Fourteen horses, two tight turns, a relatively short run from the top of the homestretch to the Del Mar finish line: If you think just about anything can happen in the Mile – this Mile, particularly – you’re right.
Royal Heroine won the first BC Mile as the chalk and favorites are 11 for 36 in the race. But 14 winners got home at odds of 8-1 or higher and eight were at least 15-1. Fairly and very recent history includes Court Vision at 64-1 in 2011, Karakontie at a generous 30-1 in 2014, and Order of Australia in 2020 at a whopping 73-1.
Digest all that, then chew on the fact 3-1 morning-line favorite Space Blues looks tough. Space Blues, a 5-year-old Dubawi horse bred and owned by Godolphin, has seven wins from 10 starts the last two calendar years and comes to California from England at the peak of his powers. His victory Oct. 3 in the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp likely was the best race he’s ever run. And while all the horse’s greatest hits have come in 6 1/2- and sevenfurlong starts, those races over an undulating European track with a long, possibly uphill homestretch – or run down a straightaway – demand as much stamina as this BC Mile.
“I have no doubt he’ll get the mile here,” said trainer Charlie Appleby. “I can see [jockey William Buick] getting him out at the top of the stretch and . . . ” Here, Appleby, resorting to gesture, pushed his arm forward and spread out his fingers – denoting a flying outside finish that would propel Space Blues to victory.
Godolphin has won major races worldwide but never the Mile. Saturday, it has a second shot with Master of The Seas, a 3-year-old who missed winning the 2000 Guineas in May by a mere head, beaten by the excellent (and retired) Poetic Flare. The Guineas was run over quick ground, which is what Master of The Seas needs for his best. The colt suffered an undisclosed setback and missed racing over the summer, and Appleby said he only ran him over a soggy Ascot course last month in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes to provide Master of The Seas more experience.
“We decided to get another run in him rather than waiting for the Breeders’ Cup,” Appleby said Tuesday morning at Del Mar after his horses had trained. “You saw him out there this morning; he’s still a bit of a boy.”
Master of The Seas will need to man up with a brave run through traffic after breaking from post 1. The challenge for 4-year-old filly Pearls Galore is an outside draw in post 12, but if you fancy Space Blues at something like 3-1, Pearls Galore merits a long look at four or five times the price. Pearls Galore is the first North American runner for Irish trainer Paddy Twomey, though Twomey in his apprentice stage spent a month during the summer of 2002 in California working for trainer Laura de Seroux.
Twomey hits at a high percentage in Ireland and has targeted the Mile for a couple
months, saying Tuesday morning that the filly’s strengths – speed, quickness, athleticism – would suit racing here. Pearls Galore has demonstrated Group 1 class finishing second in the Matron Stakes Sept. 12 at Leopardstown and second behind Space Blues in the Foret.
“Heavy ground in France wasn’t for her,” Twomey said. “She wants fast ground. There’s nothing we can do about the draw. She has some speed; hopefully she can break and drop in.”
Pearls Galore gets three pounds from the older male horses while 3-year-old filly Mother Earth gets six and has some obscured high-level form. In the QE II she fell too far behind a moderate tempo, finishing as fast as the winner, star miler Baaeed. When third behind Pearls Galore in the Matron, Mother Earth ran into serious traffic in the homestretch that might have cost her victory. Trainer Aidan O’Brien won his first Mile last season with Order of Australia.
That’s it for the Europeans, who look stronger this year than the American runners. Who’s the strongest of the California contingent? Tough to say. Mo Forza, Smooth Like Strait, and Hit the Road all are capable and there’s little between them. They finished in that order in the Del Mar Mile in August and in the City of Hope Mile last month at Santa Anita, though in the latter race Smooth Like Strait got burned up in a speed duel and Hit the Road was caught up in compromising traffic.
Mo Forza missed the better part of a year with a recurring ligament issue but came back this past summer at least nearly as strong as he went out. He’s won four in a row, is 4 for 4 with his Breeders’ Cup jockey Flavien Prat, and makes his third start of his form cycle. “Everything has gone according to plan,” said trainer Peter Miller.
Smooth Like Strait’s strength is his speed and the ability to sustain it over a distance as far as nine furlongs, and trainer Michael McCarthy said Smooth Like Strait’s pace will be deployed Saturday. His one-win 2021 belies an excellent, ambitious campaign, and if the mare Blowout doesn’t force Smooth Like Strait into an intemperate tempo, he’ll be right there at the finish – as always.
Blowout is one of two running for owner Peter Brant and trainer Chad Brown. The other is Raging Bull, a late-runner whose style complements Blowout’s speed. Raging Bull hated a wet course at Woodbine last out, said Brown, and is best suited by a firm course in a race with plenty of pace. “He just might have a big one in him,” Brown said.
In Love has turned in two straight big ones, including a Breeders’ Cup Challenge score last out in the Keeneland Turf Mile. He’s made huge strides since trainer Paulo Lobo added blinkers in September. “He’s a different horse,” Lobo said.
Lobo also runs Ivar, who barely scraped into the field after initially being excluded at the pre-entry phase, then drew post 14. Ivar is sitting on a forward move second race off the layoff and has made a great appearance this week, but the post poses problems.
Got Stormy is 1 for 1 on the Del Mar course and ran huge finishing second in the 2019 BC Mile at Santa Anita. Throw out her last race, said trainer Mark Casse, who strongly believes the mare still can compete at the highest level if she gets firm turf and pace.
Casa Creed has trained with aplomb this week but hit his highest form going six furlongs and drew poorly in post 13, while the Japanese horse Vin de Garde looks slightly overmatched.
If any in the field’s main body is scratched, Real Appeal is here from Ireland ready to jump off the also-eligible list.
Many, in fact, are eligible to win this Mile, and maybe it will be another price.