Aug Lutes getting better and better

This is no time to nurse a Breeders’ Cup handicapping hangover. A weekend removed from the big days, we’ve got plenty of Saturday stakes action coast to coast, including a battle at Churchill between two mares, Sconsin and Bell’s the One, who might’ve won the BC Filly and Mare Sprint had they shipped to Del Mar. Sconsin seems likely to take Bell’s the One’s measure but neither will be more than 2-1 and we can dig deeper for some prices – even if those prices aren’t properly represented by the morning lines.

Bessarbian

This is one of those morning lines I don’t get, in particular the 8-1 listed odds on my selection to win this seven-furlong Tapeta sprint, Aug Lutes. Take, for instance, Gidgetta, priced at 3-1 off the narrowest of second-level allowance victories, a filly with zero experience on synthetics. How could she be so much lower than Aug Lutes, a three-time synthetic winner whose lone loss was a second-place finish to the sharp filly Miss Speedy going this same sevenfurlong trip over the Woodbine Tapeta?

Mark Casse trains Miss Speedy, who returned with a very tame showing when switched to Keeneland dirt in the Grade 2 Raven Run. I won’t hold that performance against the quality of the Duchess, the race where Miss Speedy beat Aug Lutes, because Miss Speedy simply didn’t seem to handle the surface switch. Casse, meanwhile, has two other horses for the Bessarbian, including 2-1 morning-line favorite Our Secret Agent, a modest third in this very race a year ago. The reason to believe in Our Secret Agent is the recent addition of blinkers, which went on when the mare cruised to an easy win over five foes Oct. 23 in the Hendrie Stakes. That performance yielded a career-best Beyer Speed Figure and coming on relatively short rest Our Secret Agent is a favorite worth trying to beat.

Mike Trombetta trains Aug Lutes and he, too, has a second entrant, Spun Glass, who happens to have speed to push the pace. Aug Lutes, lacking early speed herself, can benefit from her stablemate’s presence, but she has more positional pace than she showed last out at Belmont Park and need not fall too far behind the leaders.

She did get a decent setup winning her turf debut in the Glen Cove, but her move was strong and sustained, and Aug Lutes looks very much like a lightly raced, steadily improving horse. She lost a lot of ground making an eye-catching turn move when defeated two back by Miss Speedy and has done nothing wrong in her relatively brief career.

Tuned has come back into her best form and is worth a look cutting back to a long sprint and trying synthetic. Lady Speightspeare could be the most talented entrant but was meant for the QE II at Keeneland, a race from which she was scratched after misbehaving before the start.

Artie Schiller

Against the Casse-trained favorite at Woodbine, but for the Casse-trained longshot in the Artie Schiller.

First off, the forecast calls for heavy rain Friday and at this time of year that means the grass course, if usable Saturday, will be laboring. And I think Olympic Runner might not mind that.

Olympic Runner has taken significant strides through this, his 5-year-old season, peaking at this one-mile trip in the King Edward, where he ran past subsequent Woodbine Mile winner Town Cruise. Olympic Runner appeared to go over the top in the Woodbine Mile, failing to run back to his previous start, but Casse sharpened him up again cutting back to 6 1/2 furlongs in the Oct. 17 Nearctic and the thought is Olympic Runner can get back to his King Edward Peak here.

The pace ought not be furious but with Rinaldi, deserving favorite Tell Your Daddy, and outside-drawn Field Pass entered, it should at least be honest.

Delta Mile

This morning line is the real headscratcher: Flash of Mischief looks more like a 4-1 shot, at most, than anything close to his 10-1 morning line, but even at the reduced price, I’ll take him to win. Flash of Mischief aced both his Delta starts (each at a twoturn seven furlongs) and despite a busy campaign comes into this an apparently improving 3-year-old. He has produced nothing but solid to strong performances since blinkers were added and should get a

favorable trip either pressing two wide or sitting third behind two speeds.

All respect to Pirate’s Punch, who would win this race in a vacuum, but I side against short prices who never have tried the tricky Delta oval.