Potomac Pace Analysis

Sunday, November 14 at Rosecroft Raceway

Officials at Rosecroft Raceway have once again put together a strong field for the $100,000 Potomac Invitational featuring many of the best older pacers in North America. Carded as race 11 on the Sunday evening program, this year’s group includes divisional leader Allywag Hanover as well as 2021 leading money-winner in the group This Is The Plan and 2020 Potomac champion Leonidas A.

The 14-race card at Rosecroft gets underway at 7:15 PM.

While the race still has to play out on the track and anything can happen, it is difficult to study the $100,000 Potomac Pace and come away with a conclusion other than (1) ALLYWAG HANOVER will win. Yes, he lost the Breeders Crown, but he faced a better field that day, from a tougher post and barely lost. Driver Todd McCarthy will likely let the dust settle early, brush to the front and get ready to pose for pictures at the head of the stretch.

With a 3-5 mutuel likely in the offing on Allywag Hanover, the only way to make money will be in the exotics and I see a cold exacta setting up with (7) THIS IS THE PLAN. First off, his best is simply better than any of the others. Secondly, this looks like the perfect spot for Gingras to blast off the gate for the front and sit the pocket behind Allywag Hanover.

(2) LEONIDAS A came back from a short vacation after getting scratched-sick a couple of times and raced well. It’s hard to see him working out anything but a three-hole or first-over trip here and that limits his allure.

(5) JACK’S LEGEND N is the sharpest horse in the field perhaps outside of the top pick, but all of those lines where he is on the lead at the quarter are deceiving because he doesn’t have blazing gate speed. He simply slowly makes his move to the front. I see him getting looped here and perhaps ending up in no-man’s land.

Finally, (3) ENAVANT is an alluring horse as he is always closing fast late, but he’s certain to be over bet because of that quality and he hasn’t won a race in months! The one potential plus this week is the driver change to Dan Dube. The possibility exists that he’ll race this guy more aggressively.