Subconscious can work out a trip

Coast to coast, a very nice late fall holiday weekend of racing awaits, with multistakes Saturday cards at Aqueduct, Laurel Park, Del Mar, and Churchill Downs. At Churchill, which hosts an all-juvenile card, I’m interested in Howling Time in the Kentucky Jockey Club, which drew a huge, competitive field, but the three races under consideration come from New York and Southern California.

Hollywood Derby

This race always seems to come up interesting, this renewal no exception, with Chad Brown, who has won the race three times the last five years, shipping in possible favorite Public Sector as well as Sifting Sands, a far longer price. I say “possible favorite” because Public Sector last out in the Grade 2 Hill Prince was the 3-1 second choice despite starting for Brown and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., the most popular turf connections in the country, and entering off two straight graded stakes wins. If he was 3-1 facing eight foes in the Hill Prince, Public Sector will at most be a tepid favorite meeting 13 rivals Saturday after narrowly getting up in the Hill Prince.

All credit to the colt. He has a nose for the wire and has developed steadily through this season. The concerns, at the expected price, are the relatively soft competition he’s faced, and the fact Public Sector so far just hasn’t been very fast. Brown’s second entrant, Sifting Sands, has some ability that could be better expressed if he’d learn to race more professionally.

In fact, the 3-year-old male turf division has felt modest (to be generous) all season, and that goes for California as well as New York. Subconscious has emerged as the local divisional leader and, despite a wide draw, I’ll take him to win the Hollywood Derby at what could turn out to be overlaid odds.

Subconscious, 3 for 3 since being gelded, never has been favored in his career, and post 12 in Saturday’s contest likely will be off-putting to some punters. But Subconscious has an ideal running style to overcome the draw. He possesses ample early speed but seems entirely comfortable rating behind another horse, and there’s plenty of straightaway before the first turn for Subconscious to establish a forward position.

He’s already stayed nine furlong, and I do love that he’ll stay out of trouble in this crowded field.

Cathkin Peak did gallop out in front of Subconscious after a somewhat troubled trip in the Twilight Derby, and he can stick closer to the leader than he did last time, but I’m not convinced he has all that much substance.

As for Camp Hope, the two wins that make him look competitive came this fall over the Keeneland grass, which was a very tricky course that rewarded the rare horse who seemed to truly handle the going. Let’s see Camp Hope run similarly over a different surface.

Long Island

Michael Stoute brings along his horses, even those with high-level talent, about as slow as any trainer I’ve seen, and Sorrel fits right into that pattern. This filly’s first two good races, a narrow loss and a win, came in lowly Class 4 handicap competition. But she then preceded to beat the very good filly Albaflora (albeit while getting nine pounds) and finished off her European career with a peak performance in an all-weather stakes last fall at Lingfield.

Transferred to America, Sorrel made a fine impression making her U.S. debut in the Orchid Stakes, where, in upper stretch, she briefly was hemmed in when War Like Goddess – who would go on to become the best North American filly and mare turf route horse of 2021 – came flying past her on the far outside. Still, Sorrel’s third-place finish in the Orchid very much stamps her as capable of winning the Long Island. She’s the one of the three Christophe Clementtrained entrants with upside on the day, and Clement obviously does excellent work with long layoff comebackers like her.

Central Park

Yes, Sy Dog in his debut win sat far behind a very strong early pace, but that maiden race did not in the end fall apart, and Sy Dog, making two moves and overcoming some traffic, really caught the eye. Especially impressive was the way the colt ran going seven furlongs, a distance that, on pedigree, should be well short of his best. He gets a two-turn try now and could squeak into fair-odds territory at post time.