MARCUS HERSH

MO DONEGAL RICH STRIKE SKIPPYLONG STOCKING BARBER ROAD

It’s easy to see We the People is lone speed in the Belmont Stakes. He was a strong winner of the Peter Pan going a one-turn nine furlongs over the Belmont track. The colt has a high cruising speed and route stamina, but I struggle to see him succeeding here. We the People just is a hot horse in every sense of the word. He’s going to get fired up in a crowded paddock and parading to the post in front of tens of thousands of fans. He is not an easy horse to settle; in his most recent work, he went with the pony all the way to the point of breaking off for the breeze, presumably to keep him from starting too fast. He still started fast, and that work, to me, wasn’t what one necessarily wants to see from a horse trying to stay 1 1/2 miles on the lead. At the price, I’m against him.

MO DONEGAL won’t be any huge price, either, but to me he’s comfortably this race’s most likely winner. Yes, Mo Donegal got an ideal trip beating subsequent Preakness winner Early Voting in the Wood, but he also has strong nine-furlong 2-year-old form through Blue Grass winner and Derby third-place finisher Zandon, as well as a win over this track last year. He’ll absolutely stay the 12 furlongs, and in the Derby, after nearly being put into the rail shortly after the start, he wound up going very wide at the quarter pole while victorious Rich Strike dove to the rail. Mo Donegal has worked strongly for this and will stick closer to the lead than you might guess.

RICH STRIKE is reminiscent of Mine That Bird, who showed his Derby shocker was no fluke with a good second to Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness. This colt trained well into the Derby and appears still to be flourishing. Obviously, he got a great pace setup at Churchill Downs, but he was the deep closer who actually did something with it.

SKIPPYLONG STOCKING is the “exotics under” prospect at long odds. His last Belmont work gave me an impression opposite We the People’s – smooth, steady, sustained. Skippy was solid in the Wood and lost precious ground around the first turn of the Preakness. He can do better than that last race and could get first run on the likely leader.

BARBER ROAD runs hard every time and has been unlucky throughout his campaign. Expect him much closer to the pace than he was in the Derby, but Mo Donegal was going away from him at the wire in tha race.