2022 Belmont TIMEFORM US Pace Projector

How does the Projector work?

The TimeformUS Pace Projector attempts to predict how a race will unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating – fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front is displayed to the right. It also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow for the field.

What is the Pace Projector saying about this particular race?

This race does not have many horses with early speed. We the People (No. 1) is the only horse listed with a TimeformUS running style of Leader or Speed and is shown in front of the field early. The horse shown in second, Creative Minister (No. 5), has never been closer than fourth after a half-mile in a race, but has been in races with a fast pace and has been reasonably close to the leader. It seems like We the People will control the early pace.

Are there any quirks to this particular distance or surface or field size that the algorithm adjusts for?

The field size of eight is average and doesn’t invoke any of the field-size adjustments that are used for overly large or particularly small fields. Races at this distance are never flagged as “Favors Horses On/ Near the Early Lead” by TimeformUS. If this race were at the Preakness distance or shorter, it would be. There simply isn’t much speed signed on.

Are equipment or other changes factored in at all?

Blinker changes are considered, and for this race Barber Road (No. 8) is removing them for the first time since his debut. He is shown farther back in the Pace Projector than he would have been without the removal.

Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the PPs, from watching the races, knowing the jockeys and trainers tendencies, etc., which horses do you think are likely to show more or less early speed than in this Projector?

The Pace Projector has this one nailed pretty well, in my opinion. If there is one horse that might be closer than projected, it would be the filly Nest (No. 3).

Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TimeformUS Late Pace Figures if the pace turns out to be hot?

Three horses are rated very closely on late pace. Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike (No. 4) has a 116 rating, while Mo Donegal (No. 6) and Barber Road (No. 8) both have a 115. It is a big gap back to the others.

How have recent editions of the Belmont Stakes developed from a pace standpoint?

Ignoring the 2020 edition that was run at only 1 1/8 miles, nine of the past 12 have featured a fast pace where at least some of the fractions are coded in red by TimeformUS. This indicates the pace was notably faster than average for the distance. The remaining three were average, with none of the races having a fraction coded as slow for the distance. Despite the rapid pace, speed has still proven an asset. Eight of the 12 winners were either on the lead or within a few lengths early. Only Creator, Sir Winston, Summer Bird, and Essential Quality were able to make up ground from the back half of the field to win.