COLONIAL DOWNS

SIXTH RACE

Connections clearly are ready to move on from DIFFERENTBUTOK, as she goes for a $10K tag after running in five MSWs, a $30K maiden-claimer, and, last out, an N1X allowance. Think this is as much a realistic approach as a huge red flag and that she’ll prove capable of producing her baseline performance, which ought to win. CHECK THE GRADE’s win came on GP Tapeta, which she might favor over turf, though expecting her to rally from seventh into a slow pace last out in a CNL grass sprint wasn’t realistic. Tries for the front again now? MAMBA QUEEN might mainly have tired late in her last race, first start in two-plus months. She has never shown an inclination to pass a rival and surely is trying to make the lead on the class drop.

SEVENTH RACE

ATTUCK is an interesting horse, possibly at a price, in this $10K claiming turf sprint. His lone turf try came way back in his second career start, a one-mile MSW in which he seemed to handle grass just fine. Was a useful horse for a long time before losing his form, then had a renaissance last winter that tapered off again in the spring. Now he’s spotted aggressively in second start for high, high, high-percentage trainer Kevin Patterson. Patterson with his last eight turf-sprint starters is 5-3-0. Think BALISTICO is set for a very competitive performance but he’s drawn wide with the kind of style that could lead to significant ground loss. Price won’t be much. GREAT BLAKE has the form / class / etc to win this but has been going forward in his recent starts and needs to take a sit behind the real speed to have his best chance from this inside draw. Against HARRY’S ONTHELOOSE on what appears to be a concerning drop.

EIGHTH RACE

VIRTUALLY’s siblings Tackett and Aurum could do turf, and expect Virtually can, too. Useful career debut on dirt and has turned in four works since. Might squeeze out just a tiny bit of a win price since the debut Beyer came back so low? LOVE OF MY LIFE hit a career best last out with the addition of blinkers and the move to turf at worst should be lateral. Dam couldn’t run much on either surface, while sibling of note Shake Some Action pretty good turf and dirt. Going farther back into female family one finds plenty of grass influence. QUEEN SHEBA ran well enough in the maiden-claiming career debut that they took her out of the claiming ranks second start. Finished with interest both times and might fit this spot more better than I think.

NINTH RACE

This is a contentious race, a full field of N1X turfmile fillies and mares, but I like STYLISH WHISPA quite a bit. Nothing more than race experience doing in a pair of all-weather English runs last winter, but she was very good in a winning US debut July 6 at IND. Ran the turn well enough and despite not changing leads (something she can improve upon) she was fastest among 10 horses by .22 seconds (much more than that compared than most) through the final 2 1/2 furlongs. She appeared well within herself once she hit high gear and won with something left. The trainer (small sample size alert) has gone 4-1-1 from eight lastout winners, all but one on turf most moving up the allowance / maiden ladder. INFINITE POTENTIAL ran fine last out in an IND turf route at this class level but was no match for a fast-finishing winner who came right back to win on the class hike at Ellis Park while bumping her Beyer 17 points. Solid showings in all her grass races and room to improve here. TRAIL RIDGE ROAD debuted over a chewed-up HAW grass course she was able to handle, winning easily against modest competition. Impressed how nd she moved sharply in tight quarters past the half-mile pole and continued on gamely in her first start, though, visually, I did prefer Whispa.

TENTH RACE

The fact COMMANDER BIZ faced MSW foes last out at CNL in first start for this barn and drops here to $16,000 MCL after never racing for less than $32,000 might not be fully reflected in the price, which I’d guess will be fair. Note the colt was pace-and-fade in his 2022 debut and since appears to have learned to rate and rally. The value on CB comes from the presence of KEN LOVES KITTEN, the likely strong favorite with superior speed figures and trainer Saffie Joseph behind him. If you think those figures, earned in the spring, reflect where he is today, and it’s just a question of him coming out and running that race again, have at it. Personally, I have some skepticism at the price. LAGERFELDT has little turn of foot and about the same amount of upside, but he keeps turning in mildly contending performances in races like this.