Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
Ova Charged’s huge 113 fig was in no way overstated
The calculations that produce Beyer Speed Figures will occasionally produce a result that defies common sense. If a figure looks impossibly high – higher than horses in the field have ever run – we may conclude that it is an aberration, possibly caused by a sudden change in the speed of the racing surface. In such a case we will override the data and substitute a figure that is consistent with the horses’ previous form.
At first glance, Sunday’s 10th race at the Fair Grounds fit this description. The stakes race for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares, a turf sprint won by 6-year Ova Charged, was hardly the sort that will produce a world-class speed figure. But Randy Moss, who makes our Fair Grounds figures, saw that the data indicated a stratospheric number, perhaps 113 or even higher. No horse in the United States has run so fast since November 2022.
Almost any Daily Racing Form reader who saw a figure of 113 for a Louisiana-bred mare might have the same reaction: This is crazy. We don’t want to publish figures that might elicit such a response and undermine our credibility. Yet all of the evidence confirms that Ova Charged’s big number is correct.
When we judge the validity of a speed figure, we ask two questions:
◗ Is it consistent with the previous performances of other horses in the field?
◗ Is it consistent with other races on the card?
Turf sprints can be difficult to judge, because tracks often run only one such event on a card and there is no basis for comparing final times. But Fair Grounds on Sunday carded two 5 1/2-furlong grass races: an allowance race for older males and the Page Cortez Stakes, won by Ova Charged, that was run an hour later.
The allowance race was run in 1:03.29. Ova Charged ran in 1:01.90. In terms of Beyer Figures, this translates into a difference of 26 points.
Moss estimated that the allowance race should earn a figure around 87. (The par for the class is 85. The winner had an 86 to his credit in a turf sprint.) If there was a 26-point difference between the two sprints, the allowance race would get an 87 and Ova Charged a 113.
Ova Charged had run away from her rivals to win by 12 1/2 lengths, which in a turf sprint equals to 40 Beyer points. Second-place Rue Lala would get a figure of 73 running behind Ova Charged’s 113. In her prior start at Fair Grounds, she had earned a 76 in a turf sprint. The winner’s 113 made sense.
Before her stunning performance Sunday, Ova Charged had established herself as a consistent, productive runner against other Louisianabreds, but had done nothing to suggest she belonged in major-league stakes company. However, she had ran only twice on the turf since her career began in 2021, and she won both starts with such ease – by seven and 5 1/4 lengths – to suggest that her potential on that surface had not been fully tapped. Now she looks like an elite turf sprinter.
Throughout her career, Ova Charged has been managed judiciously by former trainer Jose Camejo and current trainer Shane Wilson. She has been entered in the right spots and has been favored to win most of her races. But her performance on Sunday indicates that she is ready for more serious challenges. The figure of 113 suggests that she belongs in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint.