Why COVID-19 testing alone isn’t enough
Alpha Centauri is the closest star system to Earth. Even so, the starlight visible from here is more than 4 years old because of the distance it must travel.
So what does that have to do with the president’s coronavirus infection?
Coronavirus testing has to navigate a similar kind of delay. The tests aren’t that good at detecting whetherwe are infected ifwe’re tested within a couple of days of being exposed to the virus. That’s because it often takes more than a day or two for the virus to propagate in our bodies enough to be discovered. The tests are better at determining whetherwewere infected four or five days earlier— which is why health experts generally advise people to be tested five days after a possible exposure.
This tells us a lot about President Donald Trump and the foolhardyway he has gone about his activities and his messaging onCOVID-19. It’s true that the science aboutCOVID-19 can be confusing and changes over time. But understanding it, and acting accordingly, are a literal matter
of life and death. So why can’t our leaders get this right?
Trump is tested every day, with a rapid results test. So for each day hewas tested, he knew that as of five or maybe seven days before, he hadn’t been infected. It’s a lot more information than most of us have. It lowers the chances that he has an infection, because at least he didn’t have one several days ago. But it is far from a free pass to attend a rally or social event— or, perhaps, an indoor debate with another elderly man in which therewere no masks or plexiglass partitions. And the negative test results that former Vice President Joe Biden has gotten in recent days don’t mean he’s clear.
The issue isn’t just that Trump is sick; it’s howmany people he might have exposed to all the president’s germs. And yet his administration continues to send out misleading and dangerous messages through irresponsible behavior.
WhiteHouse chief of staffMarkMeadowswore nomask to talk to reporters Friday morning, using the pallid excuse that he’d gotten a negative test. A negative, you’d think he’d knowby now, doesn’t necessarily mean hewasn’t infected. It just means any infection he might be carrying hasn’t gotten bad enough to be detected yet.
Likewise, if Bidenwas tested Friday, he still doesn’t knowif Trump passed along the infection at the debate. Thatwasn’t long enough ago for a reliable negative result.
So what’s the point of testing? For people who are asymptomatic several days after being infected, it can tell them they are infected and must quarantine, though they should have limited their social interaction as soon as they knew theywere exposed. And if the exposurewas several days beforehand, a negative test lets them knowtheyweren’t infected by it.
But if they haven’t been careful since that exposure and party like it’s 2019, they’re endangering themselves and the people around them. Formonths, Trump has been explicitly and implicitly giving the opposite impression. He has mocked masks and concerns about indoor spread and failed to physically distance himself. Will his latest bad news give him any new respect for science?
Well, there’s this much: The drug he pushed relentlessly for months, hydroxychloroquine, isn’t on his medication list.