How do TV weather forecasters get it so wrong?
Oh-oh, another weather exaggeration.
While last Tuesday/s storm was genuine enough to cause cancellations and closings, it was hardly the crippling blizzard predicted.
On social media, disdain was rife. “If I wrong in my projections as often as those weathermen,” went one screed, “I’d lose my job!”
That was one of the kinder comments.
OK, local stations have to concede they, to a channel overplayed all of the few snow episodes we had this blessedly mild winter. And I understand the cynics who say, more correctly than not, that a monsterish snowstorm is in the best interest of the television outlets. (People with nowhere to go tend to watch more TV, boosting ratings, and wall-to-wall snow coverage reaps heaps of revenue.)
Yet, I sympathize with the forecasters. Wrong through they’ve been.
My compassion, if that’s what it is, comes from their unanimity. Except for one report I saw in which Channel 6’s Melissa Magee said it is was possible the storm could produce less accumulation than originally expected. The folks at Channels 3, 6, 10, and 29 and, by extension 17 and 57, who now want, or are forced to take “meteorologist” as their title – How clunky and pretentious even if generally true! – agreed on the severity of the impending deluge and the number of inches oor feet it would cast upon our lawns, cars, and pavements. There weren’t, except for the adept-in-hindsight Ms. Magee, a range of opinions or even minor differences between forecasters. We were going to be socked, and that’s all there was to do it.
So here’s my question. How good is the equipment and that special truck Channel 10 shares with NBC’s Washington outlet the stations boast about with the pride of an NCAA tournament champ? Is Doppler radar what it’s cracked up to be?
My guess would be yes, and I certainly trust Channel 29’s Kathy Orr, Channel 10;s Glenn Schwartz, and Channel 3’s Kate Bilo from a meteorological point of view (even if I miss the retired Tom Lamaine, who I always found the most accurate by percentage when he worked mornings for Channel 3).
The next question is whether the forecasters look at too may sources. Can computer models conflict?
Something is obviously going wrong, something that isn’t adjusted by human instinct of the kind of which I know Orr and Schwartz are capable and that Melissa Magee demonstrated. If one weather anchor predicted meteorological Armageddon, and another offered another variation, and a third said they’re both crazy and told a different story, I could see how confusing weather prediction is and have an idea of whom to trust regarding future calamities. With the stations going four-for-four with errant predictions, and on several occasions, I’d do just as well subscribing to a wizard’s almanac or just figuring out what to do by looking out the window.
Meanwhile, local forecasters have a year to gear up, polish up, and check the hardware equipment peddlers are palming off on them
It’s all about ratings
Ratings are, of course, the most handy way to find out what Delaware Valley folk are watching.
Once upon a time, ratings were distributed periodically and occasioned events called Sweeps in which network competed with all their marketing and programming skill for audience eyeballs.
That competition remains heady. Stations and networks calculate advertising rates, and even subscription rates, based on the viewership watching or likely to watch. As Wally Kennedy pointed out in a recent Facebook post, anyone one doesn’t think television make moves “only for the ratings” doesn’t understand the business side of television, which since the mid ’80s have been geared more and more to business and less and less to components like entertainment, news, and sports.
Comcast provides another measure to see what interests viewers hereabouts.
Going once more to once upon a time, ratings once told an entire story.
The old VCR and Beta players added to that story by giving people the chance to record programs. They could watch one while taping another or just tape a show they would miss by being away from home.
Then came On-Demand and other ways to catch up with missed programs. A lot of those ways can’t be tracked, by On-Demand can. It’s worth it to Comcast, in its best interest to know what subscribers are watching at a later date. Or for a second time.
Earlier this month. Comcast Philadelphia issues a list of the Top 20 shows people are watching via On-Demand.
First on the list is NBC’s “This is Us,” a program that built in power and intensity as it followed nuclear characters, all of whom celebrated their 36th birthdays as “This Is Us” debuted.
The show has fluctuated in quality during this first season, but in general, it earned a following by keying into situations we all face and by inviting us to get involved with its characters, not only the new middle-agers, but all of them.
Number Two was a surprise. It’s Fox’s “The Mick,” about who is given charge of her sister’s fortune, the sister’s children included.
In order, the rest of the list is (3) HBO’s “The Game of Thrones,” which competes with AMC’s “The Walking Dead” for first place in the national general competition for ratings, (4) Showtime’s “Shameless,” (5) ABC’s “The Bachelor,” (6) Fox’s “Star,” (7) CBS’s “The Big Bang Theory,” (8) Fox’s “TRhe Simpsons,” (9) Starz’s “Black Sails,” (10) Fox’s “24: Legacy,” which I thought never lived up to the original series with Kiefer Sutherland, (11) History Channel’s “Six,” (12) NBC’s “Saturday Night Live,” which has been rejuvenated by the Trump campaign, election, and presidency, (13) Streampix’s “Vikings,” (14) FX’s “Taboo,” the placement of which is gratifying because I worried this show was being ignored, (15) Stars’s “The Missing,” (16) ABC’s “Scandal,” which makes sense given the charisma of Kerry Washington’s Olivia Pope, (17) BET’s “The New Edition Story,” (18) Fox’s “Lethal Weapon,” (19) CMT’s “CMT Nshville,” and (20) NBC’s “Timeless.”
What will new seasons bring?
The next few weeks include the debuts of several well-watched shows beginning new seasons.
FX’s “The Americans” kicked the retuens a few weeks ago and is embroiling fans in new plots in new plots involving Paige, the spies’ daughter, and a love affair for Stan, their neighbor who works for the counter-intelligence branch of the FBI.
Tonight, ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” begins its first 2017 chacha. Among the celebrities competing for the Mirrored Ball are Mr. T, Charo, Nancy Kerrigan, and rodeo champ Bonner Bolton.
Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin return as “Grace and Frankie” Friday, March 24 on Netflix, the same night RuPaul’s “Drag Race” comes back to VH1.
AMC’s “Better Call Saul” continues to keep “Breaking Bad” fans from having too much withdrawal on Monday, April 10. This season, it looks as if Jimmy/ Saul will have to use his legal talents to get out of a case that involves him.
Netflix brings “Mystery Science Theatre 3000” back with new episodes for the first time since 1999. Joel Hodgson will again be the host.
The final season for Peter Capaldi as “Doctor Who” launches Saturday, April 15 on BBC American.
HBO brings Julia LouisDreyfus back for another term in “Veep” (though she is the President) on Sunday, April 16.
In a best for last placement, FX’s “Fargo,” with an all-new story featuring Ewan McGregor as twins that are as different in personality and fortune as they are identical, starts its mesmerizing on Wednesday, April 19.
This list is the tip of a gigantic iceberg, but it’s plenty to look forward to.