Blend of youth, veterans could make for intriguing season
PHILADELPHIA >> The Phillies had finished in first place just once in the previous 23 seasons when Jimmy Rollins chose to trust one thing over the other.
He chose to believe his eyes. He chose to ignore the history.
“We are,” the Phillies’ shortstop would declare, in the winter of 2007, “the team to beat.”
Predictably, there would be sideways looks. Yet for one reason, the criticism was muffled. That reason: True excellence is easy to see coming.
The 2007 Phillies had something, and it was undeniable. They had a farm-developed roster, and they had been secondplace finishers in three consecutive years. They weren’t old. They weren’t young. They were ready. They were ready and they knew they were ready.
Monday in Cincinnati, the Phillies will begin another season, and if anyone in Clearwater was caught jabbing an index finger in the air in “We’re No. 1” fashion, it was not captured by photographers. It’s probably why Pete Mackanin, who can read a baseball situation as well as anyone, was the first to sprint to the safest command perch from where to make a preseason declaration, challenging the Phillies to carry a .500 record deep into the season. A wild man, that’s what he is.
Mackanin’s modest goal, though, made sense. With their roster and payroll, the Phillies assembled for the opener are certain to be different from those still churning come Fan Appreciation Day. Heavy on expiring contracts, the Phils are built not to be at their busiest in October but at the trade deadline. They have made short-term investments in Howie Kendrick, Michael Saunders, Clay Buchholz, Pat Neshek and Joaquin Benoit, hoping they all will play well enough to maximize their in-season trade value. If pennant fever breaks out, too, that will be a bonus.
Kendrick, Saunders, Buchholz and Neshek have been majorleague All-Stars, Saunders as recently as last season. All had moments of excellence in 2016, as did the 39-year-old Benoit. If any were to sizzle into August, it would not reopen the steroid hearings.
Such is the fundamental genius of the MacPhail-Klentak shortterm initiative. It provides, as Jeffrey Lurie might say, optionality. Even if the temporary help earns no trade-deadline interest, the contracts will be paid in full by October, allowing the Phils to simultaneously open their wallets and some major-league spots. If the veterans are good, but not great, they can be flipped for younger talent. And if they frolic, well, that race for a second wildcard playoff spot might appeal to a fan base standing on the the border of tolerant and grumpy.
Once, the Phillies were the team of Lenny Dykstra and Darren Daulton, of Jim Fregosi managing with a confident smirk, of Mitch Williams strolling out of the bullpen, blissfully unaware of the notion of a strike zone. They had John Kruk and Curt Schilling and some farm-grown talent. And they were … a last-place mess, 26 games out of first. That was 1992. Yet by 1993, they were fitted with veterans Pete Incaviglia, Jim Eisenreich, Milt Thompson and Danny Jackson, and then they strutted into the World Series. Different era, different situation. But it’s what can happen when the right mix of veterans arrives and thrives.
Will the influx of major-league achievement benefit Tommy Joseph, Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez and Maikel Franco? That’s the hope of Mackanin, who had trouble last season hiding his wishes for a more professional approach to hitting. If so, the Phillies can contend. Yet as usual in such matters of sports forecast, it’s best to consult with the Las Vegas board. There, the Phillies sit at the bottom of the N.L. East with an underwhelming over-under projection of 73.5 wins. That calculus, along with Mackanin’s baseball instinct that .500 is a reasonable goal through July, reveals plenty. It says that the Phillies will be OK early, then slide. It says their late-season roster will be stashed with young players. It says they will not be champions.
Still, they have enough arms, young and seasoned, to intrigue and entertain. So take the over. Figure the 2017 Phils to go 82-80. Then watch them turn into an era where true excellence again will be easy to see coming.