How poll voters compare with CFP panel
When the College Football Playoff was formed and the selection committee established with it, one of the concerns expressed by some fans was that the AP Top 25 and coaches’ poll would influence the 13-person panel in charge of picking the semifinal.
So far, there is no clear indication that is happening.
Before this season’s first CFP rankings are unveiled Tuesday, the latest AP Top 25 was released Sunday. Heat check tries to spot where those differences might be and why.
NO. 1 ALABAMA (8-0)
The Tide lost two firstplace votes during its off week to Georgia mostly because the Bulldogs’ victory at Notre Dame looks better every week while Alabama beating Florida State looks less impressive. It wouldn’t be shocking if the committee goes with the Bulldogs at No. 1 for that same reason, but the Tide has done all it could to be on top. Next: vs. No. 19 LSU. Heat check: Just right.
NO. 2 GEORGIA (8-0)
The Bulldogs have outscored their opposition by 26 points per game. Alabama’s differential is about 33 per game, and their schedules are comparable — at least according to the Sagarin Ratings: Alabama, 55th in Division I; Georgia 51st. The Dawgs will be no worse than No. 2 on Tuesday. Next: vs. South Carolina. Heat check: Just right.
NO. 3 OHIO STATE (7-1)
The Buckeyes won back a lot of voters back after beating Penn State. Heat check thinks they were a little too aggressive and that the committee won’t be so high on the Buckeyes. Next: at Iowa. Heat check: Too hot.
NO. 4 WISCONSIN (8-0)
In 2015, Iowa went about the business of going 12-0 with a meh schedule in the Big Ten West and came up a few plays short of making the College Football Playoff. But it took a few weeks for those Hawkeyes to work their way into the committee’s top four. The Badgers, with a similar profile to that Iowa team, will probably have to make a similar climb. Next: at Indiana. Heat check: Way too hot.
NO. 5 NOTRE DAME (7-1)
Still, the voters are underselling the Irish, though they are getting closer. Heat check thinks the committee will have them in the top four. Next: vs. Wake Forest. Heat check: Too cold.
NO. 6 CLEMSON (7-1)
Worst loss (though the Tigers were playing with a hurt quarterback and then a backup quarterback), but the best set of victories among the top teams. The committee doesn’t seem to get too hung up on quality of loss. Heat check agrees. Expect Clemson in the CFP top four.
Next: at No. 20 North Carolina State.
Heat check: Too cold.
NO. 7 PENN STATE (7-1)
Judging the Nittany Lions can quickly lead down that “but who have they beaten” rabbit hole. Michigan? Iowa? And just how good is the Ohio State team Penn State lost to by one point? Don’t overthink it. Penn State is good.
Next: at No. 24 Michigan State.
Heat check: touch too hot.
NO. 8 OKLAHOMA (7-1)
The Sooners are having defensive issues and they have had a few narrow escapes to go along with that loss to Iowa State — which we now know was no 30-point underdog. Seems some voters have forgotten about Baker Mayfield’s flagplant at Ohio State.
Next: at No. 11 Oklahoma State.
Heat check: Too cold.
NO. 9 MIAMI (7-0)
The voters Maybe are a
treating Miami the way they should be treating Wisconsin. The committee probably will have the Badgers and Hurricanes within two spots.
Next: vs. No. 13 Virginia Tech.
Heat check: Just
NO. 10 TCU (7-1)
right.
Six-spot drop after a road loss to Iowa State. Maybe a little harsh. Next: vs. Texas. Heat check: Too cold.
NO. 11 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1)
Cowboys fans think their team is underappreciated and their quarterback, Mason Rudolph, is not getting enough Heisman Trophy hype. Win Bedlam and that all changes. Next: vs. No. 8 Oklahoma. Heat check: Just right.
NO. 12 WASHINGTON (7-1)
The Huskies need the committee to like them more than the AP voters, because their schedule doesn’t provide many opportunities to make big jumps down the stretch. They also need to make that Arizona State loss look like a fluke. Next: vs. Oregon. Heat check: Just right.
NO. 13 VIRGINIA TECH (7-1)
Feels like we have not heard from the Hokies in about a month, but they have won their last three games 106-20. Next: at No. 9 Miami. Heat check: Too hot.
NO. 14 IOWA STATE (6-2)
The Cyclones are the only team in the country with two wins against teams ranked in the top five when they played them and seem to be getting better every week. Next: at West Virginia. Heat check: Too cold.