Predictions for playoffs: Tide, Tigers, Huskies and Wolverines

The College Football Playoff has yet to produce a real surprise team.

In four seasons, nine schools have reached the semifinals — and even the teams that came from outside the AP preseason Top 25 were traditional powers.

The lowest-ranked team in the preseason media poll to make the CFP was Oklahoma in 2015. The Sooners were 19th to start the season, mostly because they were coming off a disappointing season (8-5) and few knew how good Baker Mayfield would be.

Clemson made the playoff that same year after starting the season ranked No. 12. The Tigers went 10-3 the season before, but Deshaun Watson was a sophomore coming off a knee injury, there was major turnover on defense and exactly what Dabo Swinney was building at Clemson had not yet been fully revealed.

Washington was No. 14 going into the 2016 season before going on a playoff run. The Huskies were also coming off mediocre season (7-6), but there was definitely a sense Chris Petersen’s team was ready to take a significant step forward in year two of his tenure. Turns out it was even bigger than expected.

Last year, Georgia went from No. 15 to the CFP. The Bulldogs were 8-5 the season before, Kirby Smart’s first in Athens. The Bulldogs had an experienced team in ‘17 that was favored to win the SEC East, and ended up being the second-best team in the country.

So what does this small sample tell us? If you want to pick a playoff dark horse, look for a brand-name team ranked somewhere in the teens of the preseason poll. Maybe one with a talented quarterback who still has some uncertainty attached to him.

And with that, predictions for the 2018 college football season: