Analysis expect to see a record holiday shopping start
Analysts are anticipating that this will be a Black Friday – and holiday shopping season – that is going to ring to the tune of about
$720 billion in consumer spending this year.
Far removed from the recessional woes of 2008, experts are predicting a robust shopping season due to strong consumer confidence for a variety of factors.
The National Retail Federation forecasted that more than 164 million people will shop at some point over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend and this year, they are planning to spend.
According to the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics study, consumers will spend an average
$1,007.24 this holiday, up
4.1 percent from last year’s average of $967.13. Holiday sales in November and December are expected to increase between 4.3 percent and 4.8 percent over last year’s performance for a total of $717.45 billion and
$720.89 billion.
Dr. Ross Steinman, professor of psychology at Widener University who studies consumer behavior, seconded that this year will be a big spender, thanks to a strong economy, low unemployment and that, overall, people are feeling good.
“If you look at broad economic indicators, the economy is strong and coming along,” he said. “Whether real or imagined, people have money in their pocket ... I would expect that consumer spending will be higher than previous years.”
Along with that, many consumers are confident they will be able to keep their job.
And, the big drivers for those spending at the stores this weekend are two overriding factors: deals and tradition.
Although Steinman said the competitive landscape has transformed due to technology, he said the inperson factor remains.
“I expect there to be a bit of a decline, there will be less people out,” Steinman said, adding, however, “People are still going out on Black Friday. They’re buying things. They’re not going out in droves like they did but I think people go out and shop on Black Friday but it has more to do with the ritual. It is the start of the holiday season.”
Other experts agree.
“Whether it’s heading to the stores after finishing their turkey or going online on Cyber Monday, consumers will be shopping all weekend and retailers will be ready to meet the demand,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retail is a vibrant, dynamic and competitive industry, but one thing is certain – consumers are the winners no matter which day or which way they shop.”
Although a portion of shoppers have already started before Nov. 1, about four in 10 according to NRF, millions are still expected to head out of their homes to start going down those holiday lists.
Over the weekend, 21 percent, or 34 million people, are expected to shop on Thanksgiving; 41 percent, or 67 million will come out on Small Business Saturday; and on Sunday, 32 million people, or about 20 percent of shoppers, will visit retail locations. The biggest day, however, remains that day after Thanksgiving with 71 percent of holiday shoppers, or 116 million people, out and about at all hours on Black Friday, according to NRF.
Industry experts also said consumers young and old will dive into the frenzy of the day.
“When the long weekend always draws shoppers of all ages to take advantage of the irresistible deals and promotions that retailers are offering, we’re seeing a change in how the young consumers see the weekend,” Prosper Insights Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Compared to older generations, younger consumers under the age of 35 are more likely to be attracted by the social aspects of shopping over the weekend or by the fact that it is a family tradition.”
Yet, Steinman said there are other aspects to the tradition as well.
“There’s consumption that’s going on,” he said. And, he said, there’s also “we’re going to go to King of Prussia Mall and we’re going to have lunch and then go to Longwood Gardens.”
So as shoppers prepare to venture out to the malls or small businesses, Steinman offered some tips for those whose belt-tightening measures of years past are on the verge of being abandoned this season.
“Set a budget,” the professor recommended to all, “and stick to a budget.”