Democrat’s path to victory in Mississippi: black turnout
JACKSON, MISS. >> The special election for a U.S. Senate seat in deeply conservative Mississippi wasn’t supposed to be competitive. But hopeful Democrats are eyeing a narrow path to victory next week by driving up AfricanAmerican turnout after Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith stirred outrage with her remark to a supporter that she would attend a “public hanging” with him if he asked.
While Hyde-Smith apologized during a debate Tuesday night, opponents say she’s at least unconsciously echoing the state’s history of white supremacy, and civil rights groups have seized the moment to push black voters to the polls. Democratic presidential hopefuls New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and California Sen. Kamala Harris traveled to Mississippi to support Espy, who is attempting to duplicate the longshot election of a Democratic senator in neighboring Alabama last year.
But a post-Thanksgiving date — the election is next Tuesday — could depress voting, and Republicans, too, are focused on getting their partisans to vote. President Donald Trump will travel to Mississippi on Monday to attend two rallies for Hyde-Smith, and Mississippi’s Republican establishment is trying to push her to victory.
“The turnout game is one you want to win. At this point, a persuasion argument is going to go nowhere. People have their minds made up,” said Robert P. Jones, the CEO of Public Religion Research Institute, a nonprofit group that uses polling to study politics, religion and culture.
VoteCast, a wide-ranging survey of the electorate conducted by The Associated Press, showed about a third of Mississippi voters were African-American and that Espy won support from about 80 percent of them, compared to about 20 percent of white voters.
If white voters outnumber black voters 2-to-1 on Tuesday, Espy would have to win 30 percent or more of white votes, a tough task in a state with maybe the most racially polarized electorate in the country. But if black voters rise to 40 percent of the electorate and Espy wins 9 out of 10, he needs less than a quarter of
white votes to squeak out a victory.
“Mike Espy doesn’t need a huge turnout overall,” said Henry Barbour, one of Mississippi’s Republican National Committee members. “He needs a huge turnout of his supporters.”