Facts should back up assertions

To the Times:

I read with interest the recent columns in the Daily Times by Lowman Henry, Matthew Brouillette, and Christine Flowers.

Ms. Flowers makes a valid point. Dr. Brix is a proven, knowledgeable and professional governmental official who is in a very difficult position. How she informs the public when the president goes off the rails involves a complicated and delicate balancing act. How she performs that act is not the issue - that she performs it at all proves her worth. Just because others might do it differently means nothing. I would much rather have Dr. Brix in her current position than talking loudly and being unemployed.

However, Messrs. Brouillette and Henry are another matter. They seem to be saying that Gov.

Wolf is failing to take the time and make the effort to empirically justify his decisions regarding distancing and proposed mitigation. Indeed, Wolf has made missteps, but I cannot understand Lowman and Brouillette’s insistence that there is no data, or perhaps that they should be individually briefed on the state’s contemplated activities despite the fact that neither is qualified.

For example, Mr. Brouillette says:

“. . . Data-driven” means you can point to the data. Where is it? “Believe the science” means you can specify the science driving full-scale economic shutdown and destruction of livelihoods. Where is it? Relying on “medical experts” means you can identify the qualifications of these experts. What are they? . . .”

Mr. Henry complains loudly about persons tasked by the government to accomplish certain things, alleging that they are not medical doctors. Neither is Mr. Henry. He complains, in part: “. . . We also don’t get vital information on hospital capacity such as the number of beds, unused ventilators and medical personnel available to treat patients. Keeping in mind the reason for the business closure and stay-at-home orders was to not overwhelm the health care system. Without this information how can we know whether or not it has been overwhelmed? . . .”

Neither Mr. Brouillette nor Mr. Henry offer any data or metrics of their own to support their assertions.

Mr. Brouillette and Mr. Henry, here are the statistics. Here is the evidence and data you’ve been asking for. I’m surprised that neither of you took the time or made the effort to find it.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/ united-states-of-america/pennsylvania

As you can see for yourself, the policies of the Wolf administration (school, non-essential services and business closures of March 17-23, 2020 and the stay-at home order of April 1, 2020) had a clear and demonstrable effect on COVID deaths-per-day, medical resources, and total deaths. Admittedly, I have not performed a multi-variate regression analysis and don’t plan to do so. The effects of the Wolf policies can be clearly seen on the actual data curves beginning approximately two weeks later, or mid-April. Two weeks is, probably not coincidentally, the incubation time of COVID. All the metrics are at the bottom portions of forecasted. By the way, gentlemen, you can download the raw data on the site and do your own analyses.

It would therefore appear that the Wolf administration has performed admirably so far, despite mistakes and missteps.

Finally, I have to note Mr. Henry’s statement that begins “Then Gov. Wolf took to the airwaves to say the relaxing of his unconstitutional business closure and stay-at-home orders would be based on the numbers . . .”. Mr. Henry is not an attorney and as far as I know, he never even played one on TV. His statement that Gov. Wolf’s orders are “unconstitutional” is bluntly wrong and contrary to the law. Used in this context, “unconstitutional” is just a dog-whistle word. As an attorney, Mr. Henry makes a good pollster.

Reasoned, logical and truthful views should always be considered by everyone, especially those who disagree. Otherwise, those “views” are nothing more than guesses without foundation. Do your homework, gentlemen. Good job, Ms. Flowers.

Russ Carmichael, Media