Will Trump drag down GOP ballot in Delco this fall?
It remains to be seen whether President Donald Trump’s slumping poll numbers will translate into a “blue wave” of down-ballot gains for Democrats in the Nov. 3 General Election. But Dr. G. Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College and director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll, is expecting a lot of party-line votes this fall.
“I think we’re going to have a huge number of straight-party tickets because of the polarization and less ticket splitting than we’ve seen in recent years,” said Madonna. “Let’s say one of the candidates wins a sweeping victory, I don’t think there’s any doubt that it has a down-ballot effect.”
Trump’s approval rating is hovering right around 38 to 40 percent these days, while disapproval is anywhere from 54 to 58 percent, according to polls in the last week conducted by Ipsos, YouGov and Rasmussen Reports.
Political website Fivethirtyeight averaged those figures to 40.1 percentapproval and 55.8 percent disapproval. An ABC News/Ipsos poll out Friday showed even worse figures for how the president has handled the coronavirus epidemic, with just 33 percent-approving and 67 percent disapproving.
A Gallup poll conducted June 8-30, however, shows Republicans giving Trump a 91 percent overall job approval rating, while Democrats gave him just 2 percent. Gallup said that 89-point difference is the largest spread it has ever measured for a presidential approval rating in a single survey, bolstering Madonna’s assertion that the country is locked into a state of hyper-partisanship.
Delaware County Republican Party Chairman Tom McGarrigle said Friday that there is always a worry that a “blue wave” might crash over Delco, but noted four months is a lifetime in politics, so he would have to just have to wait and see.
“I think Delaware County is a moderate county, I don’t think (state Sen.) Tommy (Killion) or any of the state reps have ever been really ultra-conservative, so I think moderate is the way to go, right down the middle,” he said. “Tommy Killion has an excellent record of public service, not only as a state Senator but as a longtime House member and former county council chairman.”
McGarrigle said Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney’s decision not to prosecute looters associated with protests over George Floyd’s death in late May and early June should be concerning to voters because “there’s no law and order on the Democratic side of the ticket.”
McGarrigle appeared to be referencing Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner appointing a task force last month to examine more than 2,000 arrests made during the protests. About half resulted in citations for things like curfew violations or failure to disperse, while the rest were charged with felony and misdemeanor offenses, including looting-related burglary charges.
The GOP chairman’s comments came on the same day that Trump commuted the 40-month sentence imposed on longtime friend and adviser Roger Stone, drawing swift rebukes of corruption from both sides of the aisle.
Stone was convicted in November on seven counts including lying to Congress, witness tampering and obstructing a congressional committee proceeding. White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said Stone, who was due to report to prion Tuesday, “was treated very unfairly” and had “already suffered greatly.”
McGarrigle also cricized Killion’s Democratic opponent in the 9th Senate District race, John Kane, as a “one-issue guy” who wants to bring a “union agenda” to the Senate.
Kane’s campaign manager, Steve Warhola, took exception to that, calling McGarrigle’s comments out of touch.
“With people out of work and small business owners worried about their futures, we don’t need tired Republican talking points and baseless attacks,” said Warhola. “John will fight for the issues critical to every day Pennsylvanians: Quality, affordable health care, a pandemic response rooted in science, investing in education, correcting systems of injustice, a clean and safe environment, and so much more.”
McGarrigle prevailed against Kane in 2014, when McGarrigle still held the 26th Senatel District seat now occupied by Swarthmore Democrat Tim Kearney, and said he expects voters will choose Killion over Kane once again.
Warhola noted that the county has been trending Democrat over at least the last decade, with major gains made not only in state House and Senate races, but also in the once insurmountable county seat, which he attributed to voters wanting a change in their communities.
As for Killion, of Middletown, he does not seem too worried.
“I’ve won in years like 2006 when Republicans took a beating,” he said. “And I’ve won in years when the GOP did well across the
board. Hillary Clinton won my district when I was last elected in 2016, and I expect to come out on top on Nov. 3rd. The voters – to whom this seat belongs – know I put the best interests of our community and commonwealth first.”
Killion is one of only two Republicans at the state level running for reelection with state Rep. Chris Quinn, R-168, also of Middletown. State Rep. Steve Barrar, R-160 of Upper Chichester, will retire at the end of the year and that seat will go to either Republican
Craig Williams or Democrat Anton Andrew.
A spokesperson for Deb Ciamacca, who faces off against Quinn in November, did not return a call or email seeking comment Friday, but Quinn said voters in the county have historically split their ticket and he believes that will be the case in 2020 as well.
“I think there are a lot of smart, intelligent voters here in Delaware County and I’m confident they will be able to make a decision based on who is going to serve them best in Harrisburg,” said Quinn. “To be perfectly honest, I am not focused on national politics or the federal government. I’m definitely focused on state government
and I will make the case to the voters that I have done the best job that I can in Harrisburg, and for the most part I think they’re happy with the job I’m doing and how I’m representing them in Harrisburg.”
“I do think that people understand that they need to vote for more than just the president, but yeah, I do think (Trump’s approval rating) will have an impact on lower-ballot races,” said Delaware County Democratic Party Chair Colleen Gurney. “The Republicans may intermittently pretend to distance themselves from the administration, but in fact they are following Trump’s directives and supporting him almost all of the time.
They may pretend to be moderate, but I think the voters will figure it out.”
Gurney added that the federal Republican agenda appears to be one bent on defunding important basic functions of government, as evidenced by the federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but electing Democrats locally will help limit what she called “that destruction.”
“If we have more people pushing back against that agenda, then we can begin to rebuild better,” she said. “I do think having a Democratic governor has saved many lives in the state, and that’s despite threats and protests from folks who aren’t willing to look at the
science behind the problems that we’re facing.”
Madonna said the question will be what percentage a candidate winning at the top of the ticket has to have before it trickles down. He noted Democrats already swept a lot of marginal districts in 2018, meaning there are fewer real battleground districts to be gained this year.
Trump did secure Pennsylvania in 2016, though Madonna noted Biden holds a 6.5 percent lead in the state right now. Madonna attributed that to older voters liking Biden more than they did Hillary Clinton, but also the erosion of suburbs as bastions of Republican control over the last few decades.
“That has to do with the demographics of the suburbs, where you have a lot of college educated women, where you have a fair number of millennials who live, and neither group is exactly fond of Donald J. Trump, and I think that had a major impact in 2018,” he said.
Madonna identified a “Big Four” of swing states – Pennsylvania, Michigan Wisconsin and Florida – where Biden currently holds a lead of five points or more. That might not hold up for the next four months, but Madonna said if either candidate carries the state by a significant margin, that will almost certainly impact races further down the ballot.