New Jersey governor race tests Murphy’s progressive politics
TRENTON, N.J. » Paid sick leave. Taxpayer-funded community college. A phased-in $15 minimum wage.
New Jersey has taken a decidedly liberal shift under first-term Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, increasing income taxes on the wealthy, expanding voting rights and tightening the state’s already restrictive gun laws. It’s a notable change from his predecessor, Republican Chris Christie, who spent two
terms pushing more moderate policies.
Murphy’s agenda will be on the ballot on Nov. 2, when voters will decide whether to give him a second term or steer the state in another direction by electing Republican Jack Ciattarelli. History isn’t necessarily on Murphy’s side: New Jersey hasn’t reelected a Democrat as governor in four decades and hasn’t elected a governor from the same party as the president in three decades.
“It’s one of the big, animating reasons why we’re running like we’re 10 points behind,” Murphy said in an interview. “We’re taking nothing for granted. I mean, history has proven that this can be a very fickle year in terms of politics.”
But Murphy does have some sizable advantages. He is leading in public polls and has raised more money than Ciattarelli, and New Jersey has 1 million more registered Democratic voters than Republicans. He’s also welcoming some Democratic heavyhitters to the state: Former President Barack Obama is due on Saturday, and President Joe Biden is visiting on Monday to promote his spending plan.
The race has national implications, though it has gotten less attention than Virginia’s high-profile governor’s contest. A loss for Murphy would be shocking in a state that Biden won over Republican Donald Trump by nearly 16 points last year. It would also raise questions about whether moderate voters repelled by Trump were returning to the Republican Party now that the former president is no longer in office.
New Jersey’s left turn has been years in the making: The state has voted Democratic in every presidential contest since 1992. It hasn’t elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Clifford Case in 1972. But governor’s races have been continually in play for the GOP. The last three Republicans elected governor have won two consecutive terms.
“My focus is solely New Jersey,” Ciattarelli said in an interview. “To win as a Republican, you’ve got to be focused on what it is that’s bothering the people of New Jersey, and that’s exactly what I’ve done for the past 22 months.”
Public polls show that Murphy has gotten high grades from voters for his response to COVID-19, even though New Jersey was one of the hardest-hit states at the beginning of the pandemic. About 35% of the state’s nearly 25,000 deaths came from nursing and veterans homes. Murphy held daily news conferences about the pandemic at the beginning and is now holding two a week. He ordered most nonessential businesses to shut down early in the pandemic, including restaurants, theaters, gyms and most retail stores. Masks were required
and social distancing was encouraged. Schools shuttered and then went mostly remote.
“Many people are very happy with the way he handled the COVID-19 era. The numbers are very clear,” Republican state Sen. Michael Testa acknowledged.
Some Republicans are also concerned that Trump’s unpopularity could be dragging down Ciattarelli’s approval numbers. Since a bruising June primary with rivals who claimed Trump’s mantle, Ciattarelli has sounded more like the moderate he was while in the Legislature, speaking about his support for the Roe v. Wade decision legalizing abortion and for immigrants without legal status to get driver’s licenses, for instance.
He’s been playing up his credentials as an accountant and the founder of a small business while campaigning in Democratic-leaning cities as well as GOP strongholds.
Ciattarelli has also had to balance the more traditional GOP wing with the Trump faction. That’s meant calling for lower property taxes, a perennial issue in New Jersey,
and decrying COVID-19 restrictions. But it has also meant confronting questions about his appearance at a rally centered on “Stop the Steal,” a reference to Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. Ciattarelli said he didn’t know the rally was focused on the former president’s false claims.
Asked whether he would welcome Trump campaigning for him, Ciattarelli said he does his own campaigning and isn’t “into endorsements.” He has also said he accepts that Biden was legitimately elected.
The state’s political environment shifted decidedly to the left during the Trump administration, with Democrats picking up all but one House seat in the state in 2018. They lost a second one when Jeff Van Drew left the Democratic Party over Trump’s first impeachment. Murphy himself won election in the first year of Trump’s presidency running on a self-styled progressive platform. His win was helped by the unpopularity of Christie, whose top lieutenant ran against Murphy in the 2017 race.