Work stoppage in December looks increasingly likely

HOUSTON » Baseball’s ninth work stoppage and first in 26 years appears almost certain to start Dec. 2, freezing the free-agent market and threatening the start of spring training in February.

Negotiations have been taking place since last spring, and each side thinks the other has not made proposals that will lead toward an agreement replacing the five-year contract that expires at 11:59 p.m. EST on Dec. 1.

The luxury tax system that started in 2003 sunsets at the expiration of the contract, with the exception of completing accounting and payments for the 2021 tax year. Uncertainty over 2022 probably will cause high-spending clubs to delay reaching pricier player agreements.

Free agents can start signing with any team on the sixth day after the World Series. This year’s group includes Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, Trevor Story, Max Scherzer, Marcus Semien, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Michael Conforto and Kevin Gausman.

MLB may attempt a signing freeze with the start of a lockout, or the marketplace might grind to a halt on its own, even more pronounced than the slowdowns of the 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons.

New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman doesn’t know the parameters of what he has to spend.

“I have yet to have the conversation yet with what potentials, acknowledging that we have budget commitments already in play and depending on how the new collective bargaining agreement works out over the course of time, hopefully sooner than later,” he said.

Agents say they have received no guidance from the players’ association. Some have braced for a two-week scramble to sign next March or later, whenever a lockout ends.

This lack of pace in negotiations is similar to what occurred in 1989-90, when the agreement expired Dec. 31 and owners announced on Jan. 9 that a lockout would begin Feb. 15 absent an agreement. A deal was reached March 1, and opening day was delayed a week until April 9, causing 78 games to be rescheduled.

Teams have proposed eliminating salary arbitration and allowing players to become free agents in the offseason after they turn 29 ½ years old rather than the six seasons of service in place since 1976. They have proposed a lower luxury threshold along with a payroll floor. Players have refused for decades to consider a payroll floor, feeling it would lead to a salary cap.

Concerned with teams tanking and a slide in payroll spending, players want changes to the current deal, which calls for payrolls to be taxed above $210 million (using average annual values plus benefits) and includes surtaxes that went into place for 2017. Management’s proposal called for the threshold to be dropped to $180 million, another factor that may gridlock free agent negotiations.