Election 2021 — harbinger for GOP earthquake in 2022?
It has long been this column’s belief that analysis immediately after an election leaves a lot to be desired, since spin from both sides usually fails to convey an accurate picture of the new political landscape.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the recent election results, and what we can expect next year.
Not So Fast: Clearly, election night was a resounding success for Republicans. They won critical races, and were surprisingly competitive in places where the party had been down-and-out, all of which bodes well for the GOP in 2022. But party leaders and, more importantly, rank-and-file voters must guard against the overconfidence that ’22 will be a slam dunk. Granted, Republicans have three things that favor them heading into next year: History (where the party not in the White House usually makes big gains in off-year elections), redistricting (the
GOP will pick up a number of congressional seats), and a center-right nation that disagrees with much of the Biden administration’s policies.
While the Republicans should be able to win the House fairly easily, controlling the Senate will be a much taller task, given that a number of popular GOP incumbents are retiring (Sens. Toomey, Portman). And Republican efforts to retake that chamber were just dealt a significant blow after highly-regarded New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu decided against running for the Granite State’s crucial senate seat.
Bottom line: a year is an eternity in politics, and, despite today’s political winds, anything can happen. The economy might skyrocket; inflation and gas prices might plummet; supply-chain issues could disappear; far-Left legislation could falter; and America could face an international crisis — a showdown with China comes to mind — where President Biden makes a firm stand and garners support from a majority of Americans. While none are likely, they are all possible — a message that Republicans leaders should heed so that the party doesn’t rest on its laurels and blow a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Biggest Earthquake: Most of the post-election attention has been focused on Virginia’s gubernatorial race, where Glenn Youngkin became the first GOP candidate to win statewide since 2009. It was a significant achievement for the newcomer, who bested former governor and consummate political insider Terry McAuliffe. But that’s not the race that should have Democrats most shaking in their boots.
That honor goes to Republican Jack Ciattarelli’s almost-successful upset bid of New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy. Why does that contest matter so much? Because Jersey is, has been, and will continue to be a rock-solid Blue state, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by more than one million voters. In going for President Biden by a whopping 16 points, its residents emphatically demonstrated their standing as one of America’s most liberal bastions, making what happened on election night all the more remarkable. (An example of the Garden State’s progressiveness, which this column pointed out (Chris Freind: Youth mobs at the beach: Gangs of New Jersey? — Delco Times) was when Gov. Murphy signed a law this effectively prohibiting police from arresting youths for underage drinking and other offenses, leading to chaos in many Jersey towns).
While Virginia elected Republicans to the governorship and House of Delegates (seizing control in that chamber from the Dems), neither were all that shocking. But on a night when popular progressive Murphy was fighting for his political life against a conservative challenger — and Republicans made significant gains in the Democratdominated Legislature — the Dems have every reason to be worried heading into next year’s contests.
Most Spellbinding Win: Just four years after setting a record for running the nation’s most expensive state legislative race, New Jersey Senate President, Democrat Steve Sweeney appears to have been beaten by lifelong truck driver Ed Durr, who ran on a conservative, blue-collar-values platform. Mr. Durr spend a pittance compared to the Garden State’s second-most powerful politician, yet his message resonated with an electorate fed up with government incompetence and wasteful spending. If that’s not a massive flashing red light for a party that thinks government — not the people — knows best, nothing is.
Most Incorrect Spin: The losing side always has to put on its best face to explain its defeats, but President Biden’s take was categorically off-the-mark. He believes the Democrats lost because the party didn’t deliver — “people want us to get things done” — but he is, for the most part, wrong.
Yes, the majority of Americans wanted the infrastructure bill, as fixing roads and rebuilding bridges transcends party lines. But even if that legislation had passed before the election, odds are that it would not have substantially changed the results. That’s because most Americans remain extremely wary about the monstrous spending bill rooted in leftwing social and economic policies looming over the nation — legislation which would be paid for, one way or another, on the backs of the middle class. The American people may be fixated on lattes and streaming TV much of the time, but they’re not dumb. When push comes to shove, they always send the unmistakable message about what they don’t want, and this election was no exception.
President Biden would do well to remember that, while he was clearly the bona fide victor last year, he didn’t “win” the 2020 election as much as Donald Trump lost it. As in 2016, it was a referendum election: just as the people said “no” to Hillary, so too did they reject Mr. Trump for being … Donald Trump. Translation: Americans wanted a change, but they didn’t want unchecked and irreversible socialism, which is exactly what Mr. Biden’s administration is advocating.
Trump Train Is Toxic: Much was made about Virginia’s new governor keeping Donald Trump at arm’s length, for good reason. Yes, the former president endorsed Mr. Younkin in the primary, but that was about it for Mr. Trump’s involvement, as he did not campaign in-state, nor make any appearances with the candidate. In many areas, that strategy will become the go-to model: placate the base in the primary with mild Trump endorsements, while focusing on local issues, running against Washington, and steering clear of Mr. Trump in the general election.
Conversely, the lesson for the Democrats is that, in real life, most people don’t care about a boogeyman — no matter how despised — once he is out of office. Instead, voters focus on the here-and-now: inflation, school curriculums, gas prices, social engineering, spending, and crime. In other words, running against a Donald Trump not in office doesn’t generate enthusiasm nor motivate people to vote.
But make no mistake: in many parts of the country, Donald Trump remains an extremely potent force, especially in primary elections. However, to effectively capture the Republican-leaning suburban women who are critical to winning congressional districts and senate races, watch for many in the GOP to do the Trump-Two Step. If that offends the president and/or his hardcore base enough for them to sit out 2022 in protest, the GOP’s gains will be substantially tempered. But if the Virginia model holds true, it could be a monumental year for Republicans. Where that leaves Mr. Trump in 2024 is anyone’s guess.
A Vote For A New Voting Method: Delaware County’s new voting system is, in a word, horrible. Having a verified paper trail is admirable, but it simply cannot take five minutes or more to vote — which it did for many, despite there being barely a handful of voters at the polls. If it takes that long in a low-turnout off-year election, what will the lines look like in a presidential year? Answer: out the door and down the block, resulting in people turning around and going home — the opposite of achieving high-voter turnout.
Even worse are poll workers assisting with the scanning of ballots. Nice gesture, but those individuals can plainly see voter choices — especially when the machine spits the ballot back out because something was left blank. There absolutely must be a better way, since the integrity of voter secrecy must always remain sacrosanct.
And a vote on that reform should be unanimous.