Government shutdown not likely, experts say
Senate opposition blocks latest spending bill.
In what has become a near perennial rite of passage, a divided Congress will likely put a temporary spending measure in place to avert a government shutdown when the fiscal year ends at midnight Friday, analysts say.
But it might take an eleventh-hour deal after most Senate Democrats and at least 10 Republican lawmakers blocked a spending bill Tuesday afternoon. Democrats balked because the bill did not include money to help Flint, Mich., address a leadtainted water crisis, The Associated Press reported.
The last government shutdown hit in October 2013 and sent home thousands at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base — the state’s largest single-site employer with more than 27,000 personnel — and hundreds of thousands of federal workers across the nation until a deal was reached.
“It isn’t likely that the government will shut down because neither party wants to be blamed on the eve of an election,” said Loren B. Thompson, a senior defense analyst and defense consultant with the Lexington Institute in Virginia. “The larger issue, though, is that none of this will change unless one party wins control of everything in the election, and that normally doesn’t happen.”
Michael Gessel, vice president of federal programs at the Dayton Development Coalition, said if talks break off, “that’s time to worry.” But he said the looming Friday deadline does cause uncertainty.
“Congress has trouble acting unless there is a clear crisis,” he said. “It’s that crisis that allows them to set aside minor policy differences and focus on the main issue, which is passing the bills.”
‘It’s very frustrating’
Talk of a shutdown causes many federal employees to lose confidence in the process and hurts morale, said Troy Tingey, president of the American Federation of Government Employees Council 214, which represents 45,000 employees at Air Force Materiel Command locations, including Wright-Patterson.
“It’s very frustrating,” Tingey said. “We would hope that (Congress) would start working on this money problem a lot sooner than they do. We see government employees leaving, looking for more stable or more reliable sources of income so they don’t have to go through this over and over. Of course, with the election around the corner, this isn’t helping either party.”
It’s also a “great frustration” to the Pentagon, said Gessel, noting a senior defense leader has said the lack of funding stability is one of the biggest strategic risks to the Defense Department.
If lawmakers reach a shortterm spending resolution, the effects could be manageable, analysts say.
“It’s not unusual to start the year under a continuing resolution that lasts two or three months,” said Todd Harrison, director of defense budget analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. “In fact, for decades it has happened more often than not. It begins to become disruptive if the continuing resolution lasts more than three months, but that has not happened in modern times during a presidential transition year.”
Harrison expects Congress will continue current spending levels through Dec. 9 while the House and Senate work on a compromise on an $18 billion gap in defense spending bills between the two chambers.
‘Very, very damaging’
Concern over the Defense budget has reached the highest levels of the Pentagon.
In a speech at an Air Force Association conference in Maryland last week, Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James warned a long-term spending resolu- tion “would be very, very damaging for the Air Force.”
It would mean $1.3 billion less than the Air Force asked to receive. A yearlong cap on spending would reduce purchase of precision munitions, stop equipment purchases in the Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard, cap production of a new aerial refueling tanker, reduce spending on a next generation bomber, and delay about 50 military construction projects, she said.
At Wright-Patterson, a lengthy spending resolution — with no new money — would stop many new contracts and slow down existing programs, Gessel said.
“A long-term spending resolution is a terrible way to govern,” he said. “It represents a refusal to make spending decisions. It wastes money, undermines morale and sends the wrong signal to our military and civilian workforce, industry partners and American allies about our support for a strong national defense.”
As of Tuesday, Wright-Patterson spokesman Daryl Mayer said base leaders had not received guidance about a government shutdown.