Russian drills near NATO raise new fears
Show of force brings to mind military buildup of Cold War.
Russia is preparing to send as many as 100,000 troops to the east- ern edge of NATO territory at the end of the summer, one of the biggest steps yet in the military buildup undertaken by President Vladimir Putin and an exercise in intimida- tion that recalls the most omi- nous days of the Cold War.
The troops are conducting military maneuvers known as Zapad, Russian for “west,” in Belarus, the Baltic Sea, western Russia and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. The drills will feature a reconsti- tuted armored force named for a storied Soviet military unit, the First Guards Tank Army. Its establishment represents the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union that so much offen- sive power has been concentrated in a single command.
The military exercise, planned for many months, is not a reaction to sweeping new economic sanctions on Russia that Congress passed last week. So far, Russia has retaliated against the sanc- tions by forcing the expulsion of several hundred employ- ees in U.S. diplomatic posts in the country.
But the move is part of a larger effort by Putin to shore up Russia’s military prow- ess, and comes against the backdrop of an increasingly assertive Russia. Beyond Rus
sia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election in support of the Trump campaign, which has seized attention in the United States, its military has in recent years deployed forces to Syria, seized Crimea and intervened in eastern Ukraine, rattled the Baltic States with snap exercises and buzzed NATO planes and ships.
Punishing sanctions by the United States and European allies that have isolated Russia further have done nothing to stop Putin’s saber-rattling, as illustrated by the long-sched- uled Zapad exercise.
Even more worrying, top U.S. military officers say, is that the maneuvers could be used as a pretext to increase Russia’s military presence in Belarus, a central European nation that borders three crit- ical NATO allies: Poland, Lith- uania and Latvia.
“The great concern is they’re not going to leave, and that’s not paranoia,” Gen. Tony Thomas, the head of the U.S. Special Operations Command, told a national secu- rity conference in Aspen, Colorado, in July.
Peter B. Zwack, a retired one-star Army general who was the U.S. defense attaché in Moscow from 2012 to 2014, said: “First and foremost, the messaging is, ‘We’re watching you; we’re strong; we’ve learned a lot; don’t mess with Russia.’”
Western military officials caution that the United States and Russia are not on the brink of war. But they expressed concern that the heightened Russian military activity could lead to unintended confrontations.
The United States is taking precautions, including sending 600 U.S. paratroopers to NATO’s three Baltic mem- bers for the duration of the Zapad exercise and delaying the rotation of a U.S.-led battle group in Poland.
“Look, we’ll be ready; we’ll be prepared,” said Lt. Gen. Frederick B. Hodges, the head of U.S. Army forces in Europe. “But we’re not going to be up on the parapets waiting for something to happen.”
In 2014, Russia’s stealthy forays into eastern Ukraine and its rapid capture of Crimea were seen as skillful exercises in “hybrid warfare,” a combination of cyberwarfare, a powerful disinformation campaign and the use of highly trained special operation troops and local proxy forces.
But there is nothing subtle about the tank-heavy unit at the heart of the coming Zapad exercise.
The First Guards Tank Army, made up mainly of forces transferred from other
units, including elite motor- ized and tank divisions near Moscow, has an extensive pedigree. The unit battled the Germans during World War II on the Eastern Front and eventually in Berlin before becoming part of the Soviet force that occupied Germany. In 1968, it participated in the invasion of Czechoslovakia to crush the Prague Spring.
After the end of the Cold War, the unit was withdrawn to Smolensk, near the border with Belarus, before being disbanded in 1998. But it was reconstituted by Putin to give the Russian military more offensive punch and present a visible demonstration of Russian power.
“That name was chosen for a reason,” said Philip M. Breedlove, a retired four-star Air Force general who served as NATO commander. “It sends a very clear message to the Baltics and Poland.”
In addition, the Russians have fielded a new motorized divi sion near Smolensk, close to the border with Belarus, which could be used in conjunction with the tank unit. In combina
tion with the highly mobile tank army, that force has
about 800 tanks, more than 300 artillery pieces and a dozen Iskander tactical mis
sile launchers. That is more tanks than NATO has in active units deployed in the Baltic States, Poland and Germany put together, not including armor in storage that would be used by reinforcements sent from the United States, noted Phillip A. Karber, the president of the Potomac Foundation, who has studied Russian military operations in and around Ukraine.
“There is only one reason you would create a Guards Tank Army, and that is as an offensive striking force,” Hodges said. “This is not something for homeland security. That does not mean that they are automatically going to do it, but in terms of intimidation it is a means of putting pressure on allies.”
Russian officials have told NATO that the maneuvers will be far smaller than West
ern officials are anticipating and will involve fewer than 13,000 troops. But NATO officials say the exercise is intended to test Russia’s contingency plans for a major conflict with the alliance and will also involve Russian civilian agencies. “We have every reason to believe that it may be substantially more troops participating than the official reported numbers,” Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, said in July.