Dodgers are incredible, but don’t appear headed for history books
The Los Ang eles Dodg- ers lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday night, their second loss in the last 16 games. Losses are notable for the Dodgers because they are so few and far between this season.
Earlier t his month the Dodgers finished a stretch where they won 43 out of 50 games, the best 50-game stretch in the major leagues since 1912. In July they set the record for most consecutive wins in games in which they held a lead at any point during the contest, breaking a 111-year-old record set by Chicago Cubs in 1906, per the Elias Sports Bureau.
Even with the latest loss to the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers’ overall winning percentage of .705 has them on pace to win 114 games, putting them within striking distance of the record for most in a season, a mark shared by the 1906 Chicago Cubs and 2001 Seattle Mar- iners, who each won 116 games during their respective campaigns.
But let’s pump the brakes on the 2017 Dodgers beinga super team, because while nents. That’s a far cry from this team is very, very good, the 1939 New York Yankees, they aren’t nearly as domi- whow e nt106-45thatyear, nant as other MLB teams beating opponen ts by 2.4 throughout history. adjusted runs per game.
They are the third-best And there is no guaranhitting team according to tee the Dodgers reach the OPS (.800) this season, cre113-win mark, which would atingrunsatar ate that is 12 give them a final regular percent above average after season win percentage of accounting for league and 70 percent or more. score effects (112 wRC+). Using each team’s actuThat’s good enough to rank al win percentage in the second in the majors this Log5 win expectancy for- season, but they are a dis- mula, which gives a team’s tant second to the Houston probability of winning Astros, who are in the lead every game after adjusting for best-hitting team of all for home-field advantage, time (130 wRC+). and simulating the remain-
The Dodgers’ pitching der of the Dodgers’ season, is the best in baseball this theycanbeexpectedtowin season in terms of overan average of 114 games. In all ERA (3.09, 24 percent more t h an a third of these lower than average) with simulations (36 percent) the secon d-best FIP (3.46, they win at least 116 games 18 percent lower) in 2017. and 25 percent of the time Yet those marks place they finish with 117 wins them 12th and 5th all-time, or more. There is a 1-in-3 respectively - high rankings chance the team will win to be sure, but not all-time, 112 games or fewer. super-team great. But using a team’s real
Their adjusted run dif- win percentage as a baromferential per game (1.7 SRS) eter of talent is flawed. A would rank seventh among better estimate of a team’s the 11 MLB teams that have future performance is their won at least 70 percent of Pythagorean win percenttheir games, with both the age, which uses a team’s 1906 Cubs and 2001 Maractual runs scored and iners ahead of them in allowed to derive how terms of dominating oppo- many games a team should win and lose.
It’s no surprise the Dodgers lead the league here, too, with their runs scored and allowed indicating they should have a 77-35 record, the best in baseball. If we use each team’s Pythagorean win percentage in the simulations, the Dodgers can be expected to win an average of 114 games, with a 22 percent chance at breaking the all-time wins record.
Wecantakethisonestep further and use the teams’ BaseRuns win percentage, a third-order winning percentage which takes into accou nt a team’s performance without considering the sequencing to calculate expected runs scored and runs allowed.
By this method, the Dodgers win an average of 114 g ames, with an 18 percentchanceofatleasta117win season.
There is no denying the Dodgers deserve to be the World Series favorite or that they are a fun team to watch during the regular season, but until they completely dominate their competition in every facet of the game, or set the record for wins, they don’t deserve to be called a super team.