Mulling a few predictions for the new year
In 2018, Ohio are likely to be more rambunctious than ever. All the statewide executive offices will be up for grabs – as will a crucial office that only 99 people get to vote on: The Ohio House’s speakership.
Some in-state political prophecies for 2018:
■ Assuming state Supreme Court Justice William O’Neill, of Chagrin Falls, really does run for governor in May’s Democratic primary, don’t underestimate his potential showing. First, parts of O’Neill’s platform have curb appeal – such as legalizing marijuana use by adults, and offering to expand (desperately needed) mental-health services.
Second, novelty sells in Ohio, O’Neill’s romantic candor included. After all, in three-way 1982 primary, Ohio Democrats gave 20 percent of their votes to Jerry Springer. And by today’s “standards,” 1982’s Ohio was part of the Victorian era.
■ When O’Neill resigns from the high court, Republican Gov. John R. Kasich will appoint one of the GOP’s two endorsed Supreme Court candidates to O’Neill’s seat: Judge Mary DeGenaro, of suburban Youngstown, of the Ohio Court of Appeals (7th District), or Judge Craig Baldwin, of Newark, of the Court of Appeals (5th District): Instant incumbency.
■ The Republican gubernatorial ticket of Mike DeWine and Jon Husted is the favorite to best Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor’s campaign, and the campaign of U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, of Wadsworth. Kasich can’t seek a third consecutive term. Stumbles do happen, but DeWine and Husted don’t make many.
■ Besides O’Neill, Democrats who want to be gov- ernor are former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray; former state Rep. Connie Pillich; state Sen. Joseph Schiavoni, former U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton; and Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Well, Will Rogers did say he didn’t belong to an organized party – he was a Democrat.
Still, there’s likely to be some shakeout among all those Democrats. Cordray doesn’t tend to set audiences on fire. But if two people who can do that come into Ohio to campaign for him – Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton – advantage Cordray.
■ Republicans will lose some Ohio House seats, because they now hold a record-setting 66 (of 99), and Democrats will win back at least a few.
■ The contest that really matters to Statehouse lobbyists, and to Ohio’s next governor, whoever that is, is the race between GOP state Reps. Larry Householder, of Perry County, and Ryan Smith, of Gallia County, to become the Ohio House’s next speaker.
If Republicans retain a House majority, those Republicans elected or re-elected to the House in November will elect the next speaker. No prediction (yet) on this contest – but there’s no underestimating its stakes and intensity.
The Ohio race drawing national attention will be between Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, of Cleveland, and one of two potential Republican Senate nominees — State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who failed to unseat Brown in 2012, or another Greater Cleveland Republican, Mike Gibbons.
Earlier this month, in a stunning development, the Franklin County Republican organization endorsed Gibbons, not Mandel, for the Senate. And Gibbons has been barnstorming Ohio’s counties, big and small. Plus, Kasich is, to put it tactfully, not a member of Josh Mandel’s fan club. The Mandel-Gibbons primary will be closer than many bystanders expected.
■ Finally, the Californication of Ohio will accelerate, with more statewide ballot issues, because (a) the General Assembly, rather than address real problems, dithers over commemorative license plates, and (b) promoting ballot issues is a way for political operatives to make even more money than they do now – in a state where cash registers and voting machines are both political devices.
Republicans will lose some Ohio House seats, because they now hold a record-setting 66 (of 99), and Democrats will win back at least a few.