Here is what happened in the meeting — and why itmatters
Even the most informed observer might struggle to know what to make of the summit meeting between President Donald Trumpand Kim Jong Un of North Korea.
Trump’s habit of making misleading statements, along with his record of defying norms, canmake it difficult to parse which of the summit’s outcomesmatter and which don’t, which bringTrumpand Kim closer to their respective goals and which move them further away.
Here, then, is a simple breakdown of 10major takeaways fromthe meeting and why they matter.
What happened and what didn’t happen
1. Almost any talks between the United States and North Korea, while those talks are ongoing, significantly reduce the risk of an accidental or unintended slide into war, which could kill millions. The simple act of talking changes North Korean and American behaviors and perceptions in ways that make conflict far less likely.
2. The joint statement signed by Trump and Kim contains polite diplomatic platitudes but is otherwise largely empty. Among adversaries, this sort of statement is a common, low-pressure way to keep talks going. It doesn’t resolve any issues, but it keeps the countries engaged.
3. Later, Trump made a concession with significance that is real but easy to overstate: The United States will suspend its joint military exercises with South Korea. Trump was setting a policy that analysts refer to as “freeze for freeze,” inwhich the United States freezes the exercises and North Korea freezes itsweapons tests. It’s meant to reduce tensions and create space formoremeaningful concessions. Such a policy is a mainstream idea and hardly radical.
4. There is one asterisk to the otherwise modest policy implications. South Korean officials expressed surprise at Trump’s promise to suspend joint military exercises, suggesting that Trump may have madethe concessiononSouth Korea’s behalf without their consent or advance knowledge. The South Korean leadership will probably swallow their pride and accept it, but Trump’s public breach of the alliancesendsthemessagethat South Koreans cannot always count on the United States.
The theater that mattered
5. TheUnited States staged the summit meeting in away that handed Kim some symbolic butmeaningful concessions. At the North Koreans’ request, the two countries and their leaders were presented as equals — elevating Kim from global pariah to a superpower’s peer. Because Kim’s legitimacy is among his greatest vulnerabilities at home and abroad, this staging was a big gift to him.
6. It costs theUnited States little to make those concessions. Still, they can be given away only once, and the U.S. received relatively little from North Korea in return. Analysts broadly consider this a lost opportunity to extract moremeaningful concessions fromNorthKorea, suchaspartial disarmament or intrusive nuclear inspections.
7. The meeting sends important messages to other adversarial states. Kim appears tohave forcedTrump to the table by developing nuclear weapons and missiles that can reach theUnited States. ButKim’shumanrights record, consideredamongthe world’sworst, did not appear to be an issue. Trump even suggested that North Korea could become a major tourist destination, almost exactly one year after an American tourist, OttoWarmbier, died of what appeared to be torture enduredwhile in North Korean custody.
The bigger picture
8. If the point of the meeting was to bring the world demonstrably closer toresolving the North Korea crisis, then that didn’t happen. North Korea took no steps, even rhetorical, toward disarming. The United States also made no concrete, longterm changes. The meeting fell far short of Trump’s lofty promises of North Korean denuclearization. But it also averted analysts’ fears that Trump might make an outrightwithdrawalofU.S. troops from South Korea or blow up at Kim.
9. Trump’s foreign policy actions elsewheremay limit what he can accomplish with North Korea. By tearing up the Iran nuclear deal despite sustained indicationofIranian compliance, theUnited States has deepened suspicion that it cannot be trusted to make arms-control agreements. So don’t expect talks to produce much of verifiable substance.
10. Almost any talks, even if they elevate Kim and grant him concessions for little return, significantly reduce the risk of war. The effect applies only as long as talks continue, so is almost certainly temporary. But as Trump said in the joint news conference Tuesday: “If Ihave to say I’m sitting on a stage with ChairmanKimand that’s going to get us to save 30 million lives, maybe more than that, I’m willing to sit on the stage. I’m willing to travel to Singapore very gladly.”