‘New Cold War’ could follow Pence’s speech
China could respond by funneling more money to its military.
Vice President BEIJING —
Mike Pence’s accusations in a speech Thursday warning of a tougher approach toward Beijing may have been familiar to China’s leaders. But until now such remarks were delivered in private, in fairly decorous terms, and rarely threatened direct action.
The surprise this time for Beijing was the magnitude of alleged offenses piled up in one public indictment, ranging from suspected interference in U.S. politics to China’s stomping on the freedoms of its own people. Nor had the United States ever before told China: “We will not stand down.”
Publicly, China responded with a certain weariness, calling the speech “very ridiculous,” creating “something out of thin air,” but also warning that “no one can stop” the Chinese people from advancing.
But behind closed doors, Pence’s remarks probably left few doubts among China’s leaders that Washington was embarking on a Cold War that would force the country to dig in for a prolonged multifront battle with the United States, analysts said.
The leaders were no doubt angry and embarrassed that the Trump administration went all-out publicly with confrontational language that is considered unacceptable in Chinese culture, which prefers sweet phrases to disguise stern measures.
Some of Pence’s declarations, like saying Washington’s trade policy most likely caused a 25 percent fall in China’s largest stock exchange in the first nine months of this year, could be dismissed as inaccurate, since trade tensions were one of several factors. Similarly, the claim that the United States “rebuilt China” over the last 25 years could be shrugged off as dubious and unfair.
But it was unmistakably clear that the era of Washington holding out a hand to Beijing to become a “responsible stakeholder” in world affairs alongside the United States — a phrase used in 2005 by Robert B. Zoellick, then the deputy secretary of state — was over.
“This will look like the declaration of a new Cold War, and what China may do is more important than what it will say about Pence’s speech,” said Zhang Baohui, professor of international relations at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.
China could respond by funneling more money toward its armed forces, which Pence said spends as much as all other militaries in Asia combined. (The International Institute for Strategic Studies said last year that Asian countries combined spent about 25 percent more than China on their militaries, and that the United States spent four times what China did on its armed forces.)
The vice president also singled out a near collision last Sunday in the South China Sea, where a Chinese warship cut off a U.S. destroyer, missing it by less than 45 yards.
China has kept its military budget at 1.5 percent of its economic output over the last few years. “It has a long way to go to reach the U.S. level of 3.5 to 4 percent,” Zhang said.
China could also reverse course on its support of the U.S.-led effort in the United Nations that has imposed heavy sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear and missile programs.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, signaled last month that he would not buckle to Washington’s trade demands when he visited vast grain-growing areas of northeast China, stressing the need for China to be self-reliant, a policy harking back to the Cold War era of Mao Zedong 50 years ago.
Chinese policymakers, following Xi’s strictures, are unlikely to give ground, said Yun Sun, a policy expert at the Stimson Center in Washington who is currently visiting China.
“My comments to the Chinese are that maybe China should tone down its assertiveness to avoid further tension,” Sun said of her discussions with Chinese officials. “And the reaction I get is that ‘We don’t think we are being assertive.’ ”