How the shutdown fight might play out

Stalemate on Capitol Hill won’t be broken till someone — or everyone — blinks.

President Donald Trump and Congress have four days left to agree on must-pass spending legislation or risk leaving Washington for the holidays with a big chunk of the federal government shuttered.

Only one major sticking point remains: Trump’s demand for $5 billion to build a wall at the border with Mexico. Democrats insist on spending no more than $1.37 billion on border fencing, and the president said last week he would be “proud” to shut the government if it will force them to give in to his demands.

Lawmakers have discussed various scenarios, but so far they’ve been unable to reach agreement with Trump. With time running out until funding expires Friday night, the dispute could lead to a prolonged closure, a temporary spending deal, a long-term agreement — or something in between.

Six of 15 government departments — representing about three-quarters of discretionary spending — are funded through Sept. 30, 2019, under legislation passed and signed by Trump earlier this year. A partial shutdown would hit agencies including the Securities and Exchange Commission and the departments of Homeland Security, Treasury, Justice and Interior. More than 420,000 federal employees would work without pay and more than 380,000 workers would be sent home.

Republicans and Democrats agree on virtually all other issues to keep nine government departments and various independent agencies from closing on Saturday after funding runs out. The departments of Defense, Veterans Affairs, Energy and Health and Human Services, among others, are funded and would operate normally.

Here are some scenarios for how the shutdown fight may play out.

Prolonged government shutdown: Many lawmakers and aides see a shutdown lasting at least into January, when Democrats will become the House majority and begin passing spending bills to pressure the Republican-controlled Senate and Trump to reopen the government.

“It looks like we’re headed to a shutdown. But who knows? We’ve got time,” Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby, an Alabama Republican, told reporters at the end of last week.

Because a shutdown would be more limited than closures in 2013 and the mid-1990s, the public would see fewer effects, and there may be less pressure to end it quickly.

Brief shutdown: Earlier this year, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York caused a weekend shutdown by pushing Trump to agree to protect young undocumented immigrants from deportation. As public pressure mounted, Schumer backed down. One side could back down this time after the shutdown starts.

Split the funding: Shelby floated a compromise this month in which Trump’s $5 billion would be split over two years. Trump privately said he was open to the idea, but Schumer rejected it. As a shutdown approaches, this could look more appealing.

More money but no wall: Senate Democrats earlier this year supported $1.6 billion for border fencing rather than $1.3 billion. That could be where the final deal ends up, giving more money for border security while preventing Trump from getting the concrete wall he promised his supporters. This could allow Democrats to claim victory as well.

Stopgap spending bill into January: All sides could agree to extend current funding until sometime next month and resume the fight over the wall then.

Waiting until January would make the wall dispute a more direct confrontation between Trump and likely House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California, while also stepping on her planned message of cooperation with the president in the new year.

Stopgap spending into the spring: Lawmakers could keep current spending levels into March or later. The federal debt ceiling comes back into effect March 1 and will require another negotiation, so both parties may decide it makes sense to combine the issues.