Home prices to level off as invetory increases
Indications point to buyer’s market as sales slow rapid pace.
Potential home buyers could start catching a break this year amid months of increasing area home prices.
Prices in the Dayton region have increased for the past years as homes have flown off the market within days. The Dayton area hit records in 2018 for median home price and number of homes sold amid low inventory that kept prices at peaks.
But the seller’s market is starting a slow but steady shift for some area counties, and buyers hoping to find a reasonably-priced house in Montgomery, Greene and Miami counties are likely to get some of their negotiating power back.
“Inventory is increasing, so in other words, housing is staying on the market longer,” said Tami Holmes, real estate agent with HER Realtors. “I think as we continue to see that happen, that’s an indicator that we’re moving into a buyer’s market.”
When houses stay on the market longer, home owners have to get more realistic about their pricing, Holmes said. The area hasn’t switched to a buyer’s market yet, but it could be on its way based
on the indicators.
Northern Montgomery County and Greene and Miami counties are starting that transition a little earlier than other parts because of land available to build new housing. Inventory is controlling the housing market now, said Dayton Realtors president Jan Leverett.
Oberer Land Developers recently made plans to build 250 single-family homes on vacant land in northeast Dayton in partnership with Ryan Homes. Subdivisions in Troy like Fox Harbor and Nottingham are expanding to add more homes, increasing supply that could bring down home prices.
There are other major developments happening in Xenia zip codes that are still in the Beavercreek School District, Leveritt said.
“There’s more land to develop on (to the north). Most of these cities are landlocked, so the supply and demand is smaller and makes that cost go up,” Leverett said.
South of Dayton, housing prices are expected to continue modest increases, no more than 1 percent to 1.5 percent, Leveritt said. The most recent median home price in the in the Dayton area was $140,000, according to Dayton Area Board of Realtors. That’s 8.5 percent higher than December 2017.
Those prices will eventually even out this year, putting a halt to monthslong increases, said Springboro Realtor Herman Castro. Demand will stay high though.
The northern counties are experiencing a faster slow down, he said, and may see prices stop their climb earlier. But one year from now will be when buyers really start noticing a change in home pricing across the region.
“For 2020 in election year, the buyer’s have the reservation about whether the economy is going to continue to grow or the economy is going to change, so I think 2020, definitely (will move in the buyer’s favor). I think 2019 will be the last real hot market year we have,” Castro said.
But buyers looking for higher-end homes of $350,000 or more are already experiencing more options, he said. Some of the more expensive listings are having to drop up to $100,000 of the listing price to attract interest. Houses below $350,000 are still getting offers in less than a week in areas around Centerville and Springboro.
In recent months the number of homes sold have dropped off. Fewer homes were sold in the Great Dayton area in December than the same month in 2017.
“We don’t know if it has been from the extreme weathers we have recently had. The December, January time frame has been a little slow,” Castro said.