Hurricane season could be quite active
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently released its latest update on the Atlantic Hurricane Season and there has been some significant changes. One of the biggest changes has to do with the El Nino.
El Nino is something you’ve heard me talk about a lot when it comes to prediction of winter weather in the Miami Valley, but it also plays a big role in how hurricanes develop.
El Nino refers to the warming of surface ocean waters near the equatorial Pacific. The warming of the water in this region can significantly influence how the jet stream sets up and how it influences weather patterns. During El Nino summers, there tends to be more tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and decreased tropical development in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
Upper level winds caused by the change in the jet stream pattern due to the El Nino is why there is less tropical development in the Atlantic, Gulf
of Mexico and Caribbean. These increased winds or wind shear, tear off the top of storms and prevent tropical disturbances from developing into hurricanes. In the Pacific, the winds are altered in a way that creates weaker winds aloft and tropical disturbances can form quicker and grow just as fast.
As of Thursday, NOAA released a new forecast that says “conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended.” Before this latest update the prediction called for a 30% chance of an above normal hurricane season. The latest update states there is now a 45% chance of above normal tropical development.
On average, the Atlantic Hurricane Season produces 12 named storms. Six of the 12 become hurricanes and three of those become major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). These numbers are based on formation, not on landfall. Whether or not a storm makes landfall depends on short-term forecasts and typically cannot be predicted out more than a week.
The latest update from NOAA predicts 10 to 17 named storms are possible, of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes and three of them could be classified as major hurricanes.
Hurricane Categories
The Saffir-Simpson scale rates hurricanes strength based on wind speed. Hurricanes of category 3 or greater are considered major hurricanes.
■ Category 1 - 74 to 95mph
■ Category 2 - 95 to 110mph
■ Category 3 - 111 to 129mph
■ Category 4 - 130 to 156mph
■ Category 5 - 157mph or higher
So far this year there have already been two named storms for the Atlantic, Andrea and Barry. The next name storm will be Chantal.
Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator believes satellite technology will significantly help with forecasting tropical development. “Armed with our next-generation satellites, sophisticated weather models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and the expertise of our forecasters, we are prepared to keep communities informed to help save lives and livelihoods.”
Hurricane season begins June 1 and lasts through Nov. 31. During this sixmonth stretch, the number and strength of storms will increase with the most active time falling between August and September. Of course, after September the chances for tropical systems decrease, but when they do develop they can still have catastrophic outcomes. Contact this reporter at 937259-2359 or email mccall. vrydaghs@cmgohio.com.