Biden cautiously views intelligence on potential for a Taliban takeover
WASHINGTON — As President Joe Biden signaled last week that he would let a May 1 deadline pass without withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan, some offi- cials are using an intelligence assessment to argue for prolonging the military mission there.
U.S. intelligence agencies have told the Biden administration that if U.S. troops leave before a power-shar- ing settlement is reached between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the country could fall largely under the control of the Taliban within two or three years after the withdrawal of inter- national forces. That could potentially open the door for al-Qaida to rebuild its strength within the country, according to U.S. officials.
The classified assessment, first prepared last year for the Trump administration but not previously disclosed, is the latest in a series of grim predictions of Afghanistan’s future that intelligence analysts have delivered through- out the two-decade-long war.
But the intelligence has landed in a changed politi- cal environment. While former President Donald Trump pushed for a withdrawal of all forces even before the terms of the peace deal required it, Biden has been more cautious, saying Thursday that he does not view May 1 as a deadline he must meet, although he also said he “could not picture” troops being in the country next year.
The decision looms as one of the most critical of Biden’s young presidency. He long argued while vice president for a minimal pres- ence in Afghanistan but has been said to have privately described as haunting the possibility of allowing the country to descend into col- lapse.
Some senior Biden admin- istration officials have expressed skepticism of any intelligence prediction of a resurgence of a weakened al-Qaida or of the Islamic
State group. Taliban commanders remain opposed to the Islamic State in Afghanistan, and al-Qaida, which has little current presence in the country, could regroup instead in any number of other lawless regions around the world.
Also left unanswered by the intelligence warning is the question of whether Afghanistan could really prosper if U.S. troops remain indefinitely. Their presence would most likely prevent a collapse of the nation’s own security forces and allow the government in Kabul, the Afghan capital, to retain con- trol of its major cities, but the Taliban are still likely to grad- ually expand their power in other parts of the country.