Pfizer tops forecasts as virus vaccine sales soar

Pfizer is hiking sales expectations for its top-selling COVID-19 vaccine again, and its early look at 2022 also falls well above Wall Street forecasts.

The drugmaker said Tuesday that it now expects to book about $36 billion in revenue from Comirnaty this year. That’s about 7% higher than what Pfizer forecast in July and more than twice what the company expected at the start of the year, shortly after distribution of the two-shot vaccine began.

Next year, Pfizer says global vaccine sales could total around $29 billion or more, and there’s room for growth. The company expects to recognize revenue for 1.7 billion doses in 2022, but it could produce 4 billion.

“We continue to believe the vaccine has durability,” Chief Financial Officer Frank D’Amelio told analysts.

Analysts forecast, on average, $24 billion in sales from the vaccine next year, according to FactSet. They also expect revenue from the shots to start waning in the following years, depending on how the pandemic plays out.

But for now, Comirnaty, which Pfizer developed with Germany’s BioNTech, has gained a dominating market share in the U.S. and Europe. It also is seeing growth in emerging markets.

In the U.S., around 248 million doses of Comirnaty have been administered, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That compares to 159 million and 15 million doses of vaccines from rivals Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, respectively.

Pfizer books the vast majority of revenue from Comirnaty and splits profit, as well as the cost to make and distribute the vaccine, with BioNTech. In the third quarter, the U.S. drugmaker recorded about $13 billion in sales from the shots, even though revenue slipped in its home market.