Contract could restore democracy in presidential elections process
I don’t know about you, but I am dreading the next 20 months leading up to the 2024 presidential election. That’s not because I’m worried Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis or someone equally horrific will be elected.
It’s because the process has become so divisive and arbitrary that it threatens our democracy.
So today I want to share with you a little hope, something doable that could positively affect next year’s election.
A bit of background: About 80% of us have effectively become bystanders in presidential elections. That’s because most of us live in states so predictably Democratic or Republican that we’re taken for granted by candidates. Elections now turn on the dwindling number of “swing” states, which gives voters in those states huge leverage.
In 2020, Biden owed his Electoral College victory to just 43,809 votes spread over Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. In 2016 Trump owed his Electoral College victory to 77,744 votes spread across Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Contrast these slim margins with the results of the national popular vote. In the last five elections, candidates who received the most popular votes nationwide led their opponents by an average of 4.6 million votes — more than 100 times that of the razor-thin battleground wins.
The current state-bystate, winner-take-all Electoral College system of electing presidents is creating ever-closer contests in an ever-smaller number of closely divided states for elections that aren’t really that close.
These razor-thin battleground margins also invite post-election recounts, audits, and lawsuits — even attempted coups. As such, the Electoral College system combined with the dwindling number of battlegrounds presents a growing threat to the peaceful transition of power. And it’s become more and more likely that candidates are elected president without winning the most votes. It’s already happened twice this century.
The Electoral College is an anachronism that should be abolished. But that would require a constitutional amendment, which is almost impossible to pull off.
There’s an alternative. We can make the Electoral College irrelevant by getting our states to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It could save our democracy. The Compact will guarantee the presidency to the candidate who gets the most popular votes, without an amendment.
How does it work? As you know, each state is assigned a number of electors based on its population (the number of its representatives in the House plus two senators). The total number of electors is 538. So anyone who gets 270 electoral votes becomes president.
Article 2 of the Constitution allows states to award their electors any way they want. So all that’s needed is for states with a total of at least 270 electoral votes to agree to award all their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote.
If they do that, the winner of the popular vote would automatically get the 270 Electoral College votes needed to be president.
So far, 15 states and the District of Columbia have joined the Compact. The current members have 196 electoral votes among them. Popular vote laws have recently been introduced in Michigan (with 15 electors) and Minnesota (10), which would bring the total to 221.
Naturally, this plan will face legal challenges. Many powerful interests stand to benefit by keeping the Electoral College. But if we keep up the fight, reach 270 electors and withstand the legal challenges, America will never again elect a president who loses the national popular vote.
No longer will 80% of us be effectively disenfranchised from presidential campaigns. No longer will a handful of votes in “battleground” states determine the winner.
You can read about the Compact at www.nationalpopularvote.com. If you agree with me about the importance of this initiative but your state has not yet joined, please contact your state senators and reps and urge them to get on board.