What Elliott’s cut says about Chubb
CLEVELAND — He was synonymous with the star helmet, the heart of his proud franchise, a player whose bosses wanted him around forever.
But the Dallas Cowboys cut Ezekiel Elliott anyway.
The news broke Wednesday that Dallas was cutting ties with Elliott, the team’s fourth-longest tenured and perhaps most beloved player. And it served as a reminder that the running back sand timer will eventually run out of grains, even for a franchise icon like Elliott or — gulp — Nick Chubb.
Those words read like sacrilege in Cleveland, where Chubb is your mom’s, your dad’s and even your coach’s favorite player. During a recent appearance on Barstool Sports’ Pardon My Take podcast, Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski said that fans often tell him that Chubb is their favorite Brown.
“Mine too,” Stefanski said when explaining his response. “I always tell people he’s not low maintenance, he’s no maintenance. He shows up, he doesn’t wear gloves, he’s always wearing what he’s supposed to wear out at practice … whatever you ask him to do, he’s just gonna do it.”
That doesn’t change the fact that Chubb’s clock is bleeding precious seconds. According to a 2020 study by Over The Cap, 59 running backs signed and completed a multi-year contract from 2011-2020, and 83.3% of them ended with the player being released (70.8%), traded (4.2%) or accepting a re-structured contract for less money (8.3%).
Among the players who signed three-year deals — deals like the $36 million contract Chubb signed in 2021 — only 16.7% played the life of the contract. And Chubb’s deal runs through 2024, but the Browns could save $12 million in cap room if they move on from him next offseason.
Those rumbles you’re hearing are Browns fans growling at their computer about how Chubb can’t be compared to 68 random running backs. He’s (arguably) the best back in the league, they say. He’s imperative to the Browns’ success. He’s Cleveland’s stoic son.
All true. But the Cowboys felt the same about Elliott, even in the lead up to his release. Last summer, Dallas owner Jerry Jones told reporters Elliott must be the focus of the Cowboys’ offense. He re-iterated that point last October, even after Tony Pollard ran for 131 yards and three touchdowns against the Chicago Bears in a game Elliott missed due to injury.
“We go as Zeke goes,” Jones said.
Last month at the Senior Bowl, Jones’ son, Stephen, wondered aloud whether “the numbers work” for Dallas and Elliott to continue their partnership. But he couldn’t finish without praising Elliott.
“You always want Zeke,” Jones said. “You can’t define what Zeke does for our football team.”
You can, though. And Elliott’s decline follows a trend that Pro Football Focus identified in 2021. Since PFF began tracking players in 2007, 27 running backs entered a season with 1,500 career carries. Only seven finished the following season with positive rushing yards over expected, which PFF uses to calculate how many yards a back should’ve gained based on down, distance, defensive alignment and offensive line grades. Even notable exceptions like Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch plateaued or declined by the time they reached 2,000 carries.
Elliott followed the same trend last season, before which he had carried the ball 1,650 times in his career. In 2022, the Dallas running back posted a career-low in yards per carry (3.8), and he produced just five runs of 20-plus yards, which ranked 22nd in the NFL.
Conversely, Chubb set a career-high in rushing yards (1,525) in 2022. He tied his personal best with 12 rushing touchdowns, and he averaged five yards per carry for the fifth consecutive season, the longest such streak in the league. By all accounts, Chubb still looks fresh.
But for how much longer? At his current pace (242 carries per season), Chubb will eclipse 1,500 carries in early 2024. The Browns must decide what to do with his contract before then.
In Cleveland’s heart, there’s only one decision. Chubb has become synonymous with the orange helmet, the heart of a proud franchise and a player that no fan, coach, teammate or executive wants to see playing elsewhere.
The Browns would never cut Chubb like the Cowboys did Elliott.
Tight end signs two-year contract
After signing three defensive tackles and one defensive end in the first few days of free agency, the Browns gave Deshaun Watson a new weapon in his former Texans tight end Jordan Akins.
They signed Akins, 30, to a two-year deal worth up to $5.2 million. His agent, David Canter, announced the signing Friday afternoon after Akins paid a free agent visit to Cleveland.
A third-round pick of the Texans in 2018 out of Central Florida and the fifth tight end drafted that year, Akins spent four seasons in Houston with Watson, including 2021 when Watson sat out the year after asking to be traded and with civil suits piling up.
Akins (6-foot-4, 243 pounds) signed a one-year deal with the Giants in April of last year, but was released in August and was signed to the Texans’ practice squad. He was promoted to the active roster Oct. 12 and had the best season of his career with 37 catches for 495 yards and a careerhigh five TDs, which tied the total production of Browns tight ends David Njoku (four) and Harrison Bryant (one).
Akins provides Watson with another red zone and end zone threat, and someone who established a nose for the end zone last season. In the Browns victory over the Texans on Dec. 4, he caught three passes for 21 yards, and he finished the season strong, with two TD catches in a victory over the Colts.
According to Pro Football Focus, Akins was the 9th best tight end in the NFL in 2022 with a 72.4 grade, two notches behind Njoku (73.7.). Bryant was 32nd at 59.3.
Akins was the sixth new free agent signed by the Browns in this cycle. The others were defensive end Ogbo Okoronkwo, defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson, Maurice Hurst and Trysten Hill, and safety Juan Thornhill.
The Browns have also re-signed three of their own free agents in cornerback A.J. Green, center Ethan Pocic and linebacker Sione Takitaki.