Ohio hasn’t changed as much as national pundits claim
When out-of-staters look at Donald Trump’s comparative popularity in Ohio, and contrast it with Barack Obama’s Ohio victories, insiders’ consensus seems to be that “Ohio has changed.” That is, an asserted conservative turn in Ohio politics represents something new, a break with the state’s past.
True, some things have changed in Ohio’s mix. Labor union membership, 21.3% of employed Ohioans in 1989, had dropped to 12.5% by last year. And the last time Ohioans’ per capita personal income was 100% of the U.S. average was 1969, during Richard M. Nixon’s first year as president. It’s now 88.25% of the U.S. average. Incomes in Ohio have not kept up with the nation’s.
Meanwhile, about 19.1% of the U.S. population is of Hispanic or Latino heritage; the comparable proportion for Ohio is 4.5%. Despite some railing about immigrants, newcomers go where the opportunities are.
Still, the question is, do the last two presidential elections in Ohio — Trump carried the state with 51.3% of its vote in 2016, 53.2% in 2020 — reveal new currents or display factors long present in the state’s vote?
Truth is, Ohio oscillates in presidential politics. In 1964, Republicans’ presidential nominee, its most conservative in a generation, Barry Goldwater, drew only 37% of Ohio’s vote. But his fellow GOP conservative, Ronald Reagan, handily carried Ohio in 1980 and 1984. Since then, Ohio has backed two Democrats (Bill Clinton, and Obama) and three Republicans — Trump and the two Bushes.
Some populist features of contemporary Ohio presidential politics — the “changes” out-of-state bystanders sometimes cite — were clearly present in earlier eras.
Consider 1968, featuring Democrat Hubert Humphrey, Republican Nixon, and race-baiter George C. Wallace of the American Independent Party ticket. Wallace drew 11.8% of Ohio’s vote, a higher percentage than in any other big northern state.
Wallace did well in suburban Cincinnati, drawing 24.2% of Clermont County’s vote in 1968 and 19.2% of Butler’s.
And in 1936, William Lemke, presidential candidate of the Union Party, spawned by right-wing “radio priest” Charles Coughlin, attracted significant support in western Ohio counties, topped by 21% of the Mercer County (Celina) vote and 18% of the Putnam County (Ottawa) vote. In 2016, Mercer and Putnam gave Trump his highest Ohio percentages (80% and 79%, respectively), and were among his top three Ohio county percentages in 2020 — outpaced that year only by Holmes (Millersburg), which cast 83.2% of its vote for Trump, while Mercer and Putnam gave him 82%.
True, some things about Ohio politics have changed, notably the current weakness of the Ohio Democratic organization, last robust during the 19831991 governorship of Richard F. Celeste. But personalizing features of Ohio politics have always been there. The difference isn’t one of substance but of modes – by a mass-media system that has been fractured by the internet, and by Trump, a master at mobilizing voter gripes, some made respectable by a coarsening culture.