Dems are working to reach Latino voters; GOP is not
Joe
Biden knows he has a problem with Latino voters. He acknowledged as much during a visit to Arizona last month: “I need you badly,” he said, with a tinge of exasperation, to a room of supporters.
He was visiting a longtime Mexican restaurant, a staple in a working-class corner of downtown Phoenix, as his presidential campaign officially launched its general election effort to woo and win back Latino voters in Arizona and other battleground states. The effort, called “Latinos con Biden-Harris,” is starting off much earlier than the muted version that played out in 2020. This year, it couldn’t be coming at a more necessary time.
Across just about every poll and survey, Biden seems to be struggling to hold onto the high levels of support that the second-fastest growing ethnic voting group has historically given Democrats. More Hispanic and Latino voters say they are open to switching parties than before. They are dissatisfied with the state of the economy under Biden’s leadership. Many pine for the pre-pandemic Trump days. And more worrying for Democrats, they view Donald Trump more positively today than they did after the 2020 election.
Still, none of that means that Republicans are actively taking advantage of this moment. For now, the Trump campaign and the GOP don’t seem to have a concrete strategy to make more inroads with these voters. As the Republican National Committee undergoes a major transition with more Trump-aligned leadership, its much-lauded community outreach centers for nonwhite voters stand in limbo.
The recent rollout of the “Latinos con Biden-Harris” effort is a perfect example of these contrasting realities: During the last two weeks, the most the Republican Party, or the Trump campaign, has done in reaching out to Hispanic and Latino voters was to recirculate a fan-created musical jingle that it repackaged as an ad toward the end of the 2020 campaign cycle, and fire off a few social media posts.
But will this slow Republican outreach end up mattering? The last two weeks show, in a nutshell, the dueling struggles of Democratic and Republican outreach to Latino voters in 2024. Despite having some momentum on their side, the Republican Party seems unable or unwilling to seize the opportunity they have in swing states to lock up support from America’s newest swing voters.
Meanwhile, spooked Democrats are ready to pour in huge amounts of money and dedicate resources early on — but they may be focusing on a message that just doesn’t resonate with the voters most upset with the Biden years.
Arizona is now the quintessential battleground state, and at its core is Maricopa County — the county that has seen some of the biggest gains in population through Phoenix and its expanding, wealthier suburbs. Since the Trump era of national politics began, Arizona has elected two Democratic senators, a Democratic governor and attorney general, and voted for Biden, after not voting for a Democratic presidential candidate for 20 years.
Nationally, the GOP has a golden opportunity, and many Republicans recognize this: They have a window to win over even more Latino voters than in 2020, and nearly all polling shows they have reason to be optimistic.
Still, a Latino exodus from the Democratic Party is unlikely to happen without intentional efforts to win over voters. At least for now, either because of a lack of money, strategy or will, the GOP is doing the bare minimum.
The last three presidential cycles have each delivered Democrats consistently smaller margins of support with all kinds of nonwhite voters, but especially with Latinos: During Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, for example, the Democratic advantage over Republicans with these voters was a 39-point difference in vote preference; by 2020, that advantage had shrunk by 16 points.
As Hispanic and Latino Americans become swing voters, the stakes of outreach and persuasion could not be higher for the party that has enjoyed their support for so long.