Bills and Steelers have injury concerns
ORCHARD PARK - When the Buffalo Bills took the field in Miami last weekend, they were almost as healthy a team as they were way back in September when they opened the season against the Jets.
Only four players who were expected to play key roles in 2023 – Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, Damien Harris and Jordan Phillips – were on the injured reserve list, which is a remarkably low number going into Week 18. And for the showdown against the Dolphins they had no players with a game-day designation once center Mitch Morse was upgraded from questionable to good to go once he recovered from a brief illness. That’s right, none.
However, things change fast in the brutal NFL and now, heading into Sunday afternoon’s AFC wild-card game at Highmark Stadium against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the injury report is quite different.
Bills injury report
Five players were hurt during Buffalo’s physical 21-14 AFC East-clinching victory over the Dolphins, and they will all most likely carry some sort of designation on the way to kickoff Sunday.
Safety Taylor Rapp suffered a calf injury while making his game-sealing interception, but the other four players got hurt in the first half and were unable to return.
Wide receiver Gabe Davis reportedly sprained the PCL ligament in his knee; running back Ty Johnson suffered a concussion; cornerback Rasul Douglas injured his knee; and linebacker Tyrel Dodson banged up his shoulder. None of them participated in the walk-through practice Wednesday and at best, their availability for the game will be determined on a day-today basis.
“Yeah, would you like to be a little healthier than that? Yes,” coach Sean
See BILLS, Page 4C
McDermott said. “We've been dealing with it quite honestly most of the year and we found a way and we'll continue to do that.”
McDermott is correct that while the Bills' have gotten healthier late in the year, they have certainly faced their share of injury problems. True, only four guys are on IR, but they were without numerous players for varying degrees of time on their way to their 11-6 record.
To wit, players who missed games included tight ends Dawson Knox (5) and Dalton Kincaid (1); edge rushers Greg Rousseau (1), Von Miller (4) and A.J. Epenesa (2); defensive tackles DaQuan Jones (10) and Ed Oliver (1); safeties Micah Hyde (3), Jordan Poyer (1) and Rapp (1); and cornerbacks Kaiir Elam (7), Christian Benford (2) and Dane Jackson (2).
Roster depth has been key for Bills
The good news is that the Bills' playoff-caliber depth has done a great job covering those absences, and several reserves may be called on against the Steelers.
If Davis can't go, Trent Sherfield figures to step in as he did against Miami, when he caught three passes for 24 yards and a TD, plus ran some excellent routes that opened avenues for other receivers.
Jackson did a nice job taking over for Douglas; unheralded Baylon Spector did a surprisingly fine job in Dodson's stead playing 19 snaps after he'd played just six on defense all season. And Leonard Fournette became the No. 2 back once Johnson went down.
“That's big,” McDermott said of the backup players. “With those guys being ready to go and taking ownership of that responsibility for themselves, and coaches having them ready to go. And that just goes back to the process during the week of these guys paying attention, even though they're not the primary starter. They know all it takes is one snap and they're in there and they're going to be expected to execute. Those guys did a phenomenal job of just that.”
Here are three questions I have going into the Bills vs Steelers game:
1. Steelers injury report
The Bills caught a nice break last week in Miami with the Dolphins playing without offensive stars Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle and defensive standouts Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. This week, they won't have to face the NFL's top sacker in 2023, edge rusher T.J. Watt, who suffered a knee injury against Baltimore.
Watt has a case for being the best defensive player in the league, an offense-wrecker who, in addition to 19 sacks had 86 pressures which ranked seventh, made 68 tackles, had one interception, four forced fumbles, and three recoveries including one he returned for a touchdown. “I know they ruled Watt out, but that doesn't mean we're in the clear,” Josh Allen said before reeling off several Steelers who will make things difficult for the Buffalo offense.
Still, not having Watt is going to be a tough situation for the Steelers. They have not been great defending the pass as injuries in the back seven have contributed to that, most notably the absence of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Without Watt creating havoc, that might give Allen that extra split second he needs to allow for a route to develop, or to move through his progression.
Players like Nick Herbig (three sacks) and Markus Golden (four) will get Watt's snap counts, and it means that on the other side, Alex Highsmith (seven sacks) will have to carry an even bigger load.
“They've got a very good defensive line,” Allen said. “One of the better players interior that's played this game in Cam Hayward. He's an animal. Highsmith on the left edge, he's playing at as high a level as anybody in the league right now. So we're gonna have our hands full. We got to make sure that we have a good game plan, we're communicating well, and it's win or go home.”
2. Will third-down success decide the Bills vs Steelers game?
As we all know, offensive success, meaning sustaining drives and scoring, is directly tied to the ability to convert on third down and that is pretty obvious when you look at the numbers.
The Bills were No. 1 in the NFL with a 49.8% third-down conversion rate and, not surprisingly, they ranked sixth in scoring (26.5) and fourth in total yards (374.5). The top 11 teams in third-down conversion rate are all in the postseason and the only playoff teams who rank outside the top 11 are the Texans (19th), Steelers (22nd) and Browns (29th).
And if there was ever an argument that offense wins games more than defense – I have always believed this, by the way – third-down success on offense illuminates this. Among the 14 playoff teams, only four rank in the top 10 for preventing third downs, led by the Browns (1st) and followed by the Texans (5th), Ravens (7th) and Chiefs (10th). The Bills were 19th as they allowed a 38.6% rate on third down.
“It's gonna take a good defense to stop the offenses that are left in the playoffs right now,” Allen said.
As for the Steelers, they struggled on third downs on both sides of the ball. They ranked 22nd on offense (36.6%) and 21st on defense (39.1%) so this is an area the Bills might be able to exploit because they have the most lethal thirddown converter in the game in Allen.
Allen completed 55 third-down passes that resulted in a first down, and of his career-high 57 rushing first downs, 32 of those came on third-down plays, perhaps none bigger or better than his 15-yard scramble that converted a third-and-13 on the Bills last drive against Miami.