Voters mull support for third-party candidates
But independents face barriers to get on ballots
After casting his vote for Donald Trump for president in 2016 in what he thought was a “fail-safe” decision, Romeo Keyes became so angry with his choice that he didn’t even bother voting during the highly contested presidential race in 2020.
“I picked the less of two evils back then, and I just didn’t want to do it again,” Keyes, 26, said. A writer and native of South Central Los Angeles, Keyes said he’s planning to vote this time for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the environmental lawyer who became an independent candidate in October.
Either a Republican or a Democrat has claimed the White House since Zachary Taylor won as a Whig in 1848. But this year, perhaps more than in recent election years, some Americans are fed up with both major parties and are looking elsewhere.
Though not polling high enough to topple the two leading parties, independent candidates have earned sufficient votes to swing presidential elections. Businessman Ross Perot, for example, claimed 19% of the national vote in 1992, likely helping Democrat Bill Clinton win the presidency.
It’s tough to challenge America’s entrenched two-party system.
Getting on 50 different state ballots – each with its own rules and regulations – is complicated, time-consuming and expensive. Kennedy’s campaign estimates it will cost $30 million.
Third-party candidates are also typically left out of the primary process. In Pennsylvania, for instance, people registered as independents can’t vote in primaries.
“So who is voting? It’s the extremes. It’s the voices on the far left and the far right, mostly,” said former Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar. “That just reinforces the same and the same and the same.’’
Election process rules could be improved to allow more third parties to form and get on ballots, and independents could be allowed to vote in primaries, she said, though she doesn’t expect changes this year.
It’s precisely the people who have succeeded in the current system who would have to make the changes.
“Incumbency is so powerful,’’ Boockvar said. “And if all they care about is their interest, then they’re not going to vote for something that puts them more at risk, and that’s 100% what it’s about.”
So far, Kennedy has qualified for just one state’s ballot: Utah. The Democratic National Committee has sued his Super PAC, American Values 2024, which is funding efforts to get him on the ballot in five other states, alleging the funding amounts to an illegal contribution.
This year’s only other declared thirdparty candidate, activist and professor Cornel West, has said his objective is to get his name on the ballot in 15 states by March and between 30 to 35 states by June, with hopes of getting on all 50 (or slightly less) by Election Day in November. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has also suggested he might run as a third-party candidate.
Even if one made it on most ballots, it’s not yet clear whether a third-party candidate could win enough votes to affect this year’s election, experts say.
In a Suffolk University/USA TODAY national poll conducted in October, Kennedy received the support of 13% of likely voters, while Biden and Trump tied at 37% apiece. West claimed 4%. A February ABC News analysis of a variety of polls concluded that 40% of Americans have a favorable impression of Kennedy, while 32% have an unfavorable view. The analysis didn’t include West.
“None of these candidates, individually, would have a prayer of winning barring some truly incredible change in American politics,” political analyst Kyle Kondik wrote in an October article of Crystal Ball, a publication of the University of Virginia.
“Collectively, though, the level of support they get will be interesting to monitor, and it may be that the third party vote ends up disproportionately hurting one of the major party nominees over the other, although that is not certain,” wrote Kondik, Crystal Ball’s managing editor.
During the 2016 election, 8.3 million voters – or 6% of the electorate – chose a third-party candidate, Kondik said in an interview with USA TODAY.
“Maybe if all 8.3 million had voted for someone in the major parties, it could’ve potentially changed the result,” he said. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 2.9 million votes, but lost the Electoral College vote to Trump 304 to 227.
About 2% of the electorate voted for a third party in 2020.
Recent third-party performance has generally been strongest in Western states and weakest in the South, Kondik said, and the states most likely to decide this year’s election have not had high average third-party voting this century.
Third-party candidates often poll better than they perform, particularly this far out from Election Day, Kondik said. By November, when voters think more seriously about their decision, fewer may decide to go outside the two major parties.
Third-party candidates may affect who eventually wins, but Kondik thinks they “have no chance” of winning themselves.
“There may be someone who wants to cast a protest vote – that’s what I think effectively a third-party vote would be,” he said.
Contributing: Deborah Barfield Berry, USA TODAY