Schedule gets easier starting now — time to make a run
Is this the May that finally delivers a dose of hope for the Detroit Tigers?
The season’s second month has been full of disappointment over the past eight years, with only two winning Mays for the Tigers since the start of the 2015 season (both were virtual dead heats, with the Tigers finishing one game above .500 in 2018 and 2021).
But here we are, seven games into May 2023, and the Tigers are 6-1 — and they were 12 outs from making it 7-0 on Sunday in St. Louis.
As third baseman Nick Maton — aka “Wolfie” to his buddies — told reporters Sunday, "It's baseball, man. You got to keep grinding. Whatever happens, you just got to keep pushing forward.”
And so, on we push, into the midst of the season’s second month, with the Tigers at 1618, two games under .500 and 128 left to play.
After the AL East gantlet of April (which handed the Tigers 14 losses in 16 games), May has been downright pleasant, with a sweep of the New York Mets and a series win over the St. Louis Cardinals (who, uh, are 13 games under .500).
And it could get better.
Over the next month, the Tigers play 27 games in nine series against eight teams; two entered Monday above .500 this season, two are below .400 ( hello, AL Central!) and four others are hanging out with the Tigers in the molten center of the standings — not erupting with playoff hopes quite yet, but not cooling off in favor of this winter’s draft lottery, either. Let’s scout 31 days of May and June foes (with their winning percentages entering Monday in parentheses):
(All stats entering Monday.) Monday-Wednesday: Cleveland Guardians (.471) —
Consider this the opposite of the Tigers’ April scheduling issue, as the Guardians averaged five runs a game over their first 10 contests, all against the AL West (going 6-4 against Seattle and Oakland). Since then, they’re 10-14 while averaging just three runs a game; José Ramirez is still their best hitter, albeit with a .799 OPS, and second-year outfielder Oscar Gonzalez, who had a .789 OPS in
2022, was just demoted to Triple-A with a .501 OPS this year.
Friday-Sunday: Seattle Mariners (.500) — The “Can’t Miss Team” for MLB and the NHL (their park will host the All-Star Game in July as well as the Winter Classic in January) is also a “Can’t Hit Team,” with a .685 OPS that ranks 23rd in MLB. (OK, the Tigers’ .652 OPS ranks 29th, but stick with us.) Outfielder Jarred Kelenic is having a breakout season (.298/.357/.570) in his third go-round (but still just 23) while reigning AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez is not, with a .696 OPS. (Riley Greene’s OPS is at .686, by the way.)
May 16-17: Pittsburgh Pirates (.571) — Few teams have embraced MLB’s bigger bases’ increased potential for theft like the, ahem, Pirates, who lead the majors with 48 steals (despite a mere 82.8% success rate that ranks only eighth in the majors). Their weird stat?
They run A LOT for how often they reach base — in 471 times with a runner on first or second with the next base open, they’ve gone for it 58 times. That steal attempt rate of 12.3% is nearly double the league average of 6.5% (with the Tigers at 5.7%). Still, you can’t steal first base, and the Pirates have lost seven in a row despite going 9-for-10 in steal attempts.
May 19-21: Washington Nationals (.412) — The Nats officially launched their rebuild last summer with the trades of Juan Soto (to the Padres) and Max Scherzer and Trea Turner (to the Dodgers). The pitching returns of MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray have combined for a 3.33 ERA in 752⁄3 innings. The rest of their pitchers have combined for a 4.93 ERA. Call it: “Gore and Gray and pray it rains for three days.”
May 22-24: Kansas City Royals (.257) — Salvador Perez (.290/.341/.516) is eternal behind the plate, first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino (.276/.372/.504) is as challenging to opposing pitchers as he is to spell-check and 39year-old Zack Greinke may finish with more homers allowed than walks issued — he’s at seven and six, respectively — but he’s also on pace for his first ERA over 5.00 since he was 21 and pitching for the 2005 Royals. That squad won 56 games; this one might not win 50.
May 25-28, June 2-4: Chicago White Sox (.343) — Whatever deal right-hander Dylan Cease made with the Baseball Gods (noble or sinister) as apparently expired; he posted a 2.20 ERA last year despite leading the majors in walks (78); this year, his 19 walks are only fifth, but come with a 4.58 ERA. Oh, and DH Eloy Jiménez (appendix) and third baseman Yoan Moncada (back) have spent time on the injured list again. We’re shocked.)
May 29-31: Texas Rangers (.606) — The lone division leader is getting breakout seasons from 28-year-old catcher Jonah Heim (with a .950 OPS and no relation to any Tigers prospects) and 25-year-old third baseman Josh Jung (who’s at .808 and is the older brother of 2022 Tigers first-rounder Jace Jung). The Rangers’ starting rotation is also solid, with a 3.76 ERA that ranks eighth in baseball, at a cost of $93.6 million this season — or as much as the Tigers’ entire non-Miguel Cabrera roster.
June 5-7: Philadelphia Phillies (.457) — The defending NL champs haven’t been able to get going at the same time. Kyle Schwarber leads the Phils with eight home runs, but was also mired in a brutal slump; his two hits Sunday matched his total in the eight games prior (in which Philly went 2-6). Bryce Harper is back after missing the first 30 games while recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery.
Add it all up, and the Tigers’ next eight opponents have combined to go 124-151 — a .451 winning percentage that’s not that far off the Tigers’ .455 entering Monday. Of course, we’ve taken a rosy look at a Tigers schedule before, only to come away stung by the thorns of wasted at-bats, bad defense and missed opportunities. And lurking in the weeds is a June slate that features five series against teams above .500 (and one against the Royals, bless their hearts) — but, hey, that’s a worry for June, no?