Why Tigers could be this year’s MLB sleeper team

Could the Detroit Tigers be the MLB team that makes a surprise deep postseason run, similar to the Arizona Diamondbacks making the World Series last year?

It’s an encouraging thought for Tigers fans who have not seen postseason baseball at Comerica Park since 2014, tied for the longest postseason drought in the MLB. There’s plenty of promise surrounding this young Tigers team during spring training, as it looks to build on last year’s 78-84 finish.

With potential cornerstones such as Opening Day starter Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and other promising players such as Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Reese Olson, combined with free agent acquisitions Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, there is increased excitement about the Tigers’ competitiveness heading into the season.

The belief the Tigers could take the leap to the postseason is real among players and fans during spring training. Skubal said his mind is set on competing for a playoff spot in a wideopen American League Central, in which the Tigers finished nine games behind the Minnesota Twins in 2023. However, Harris and manager A.J. Hinch were quick to say the team needs to focus on what’s in front of them in spring training rather than what could happen at the end of the season.

But still, the prospect of a quick turnaround is on the table, with a fresh blueprint laid by the Diamondbacks last year. Arizona was by no means the best team during the regular season, but won enough late in the season to finish a game ahead of the Chicago Cubs for the final NL wild-card spot.

Arizona took advantage of the expanded MLB playoff format and proved big payrolls and household names aren’t what always wins in October.

So the question is: Can the Detroit Tigers be that team this year? It is certainly plausible, especially considering the division the Tigers play in. The Twins won the Central with an 87-75 record last year and are projected by FanGraphs to finish atop the division again with an 84-78 record.

The Tigers are projected to finish five games back with a 79-83 record, with the Cleveland Guardians sitting just ahead with an 80-82 projection. FanGraphs’ projected bar for an AL wild card is 85 wins, with three teams in the East and West projected to finish at that line. But those projections can be wiped away over the course of the summer, as last year proved.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield went through an exercise trying to identify who could be this year’s version of the Diamondbacks, identifying different key categories in which Arizona excelled last year to try to find the blueprint of a sleeper team that could make noise in the postseason, and the Tigers popped up a lot. Here are the five categories he chose to try to identify that next team, and how the Tigers fit into that mold.

Develop a star

The third category is where we get our first mention of the Tigers by ESPN, though it is probably not in the way Tigers fans would hope. ESPN identified Corbin Carroll as the Diamondbacks’ star after he won Rookie of the Year last season and posted a 5.4 WAR, top 15 in the MLB. The Tigers were mentioned in a negative light, being labeled as a team that’s “in trouble” in the star department despite the collection of potential.

On the Tigers’ star power, Schoenfield wrote: “Detroit’s best position player according to WAR in 2023, however, was ... drum roll ... Andy Ibanez at 2.0. Riley Greene (1.9), Kerry Carpenter (1.9), Spencer Torkelson (0.8), and rookies Parker Meadows and Colt Keith form the foundation, but I’m not sure any of them are future stars at the 5-WAR level.”

Out of Detroit’s young players, Greene and Torkelson have shown the most on the MLB level to suggest they could step into a bigger role. Torkelson launched 31 home runs last year, but was inconsistent on defense and as an all-around hitter, batting .233 batting average with a .313 on-base percentage. Greene hit .288 with 11 home runs, 35 walks and 114 strikeouts over 99 games, posting a .796 OPS, but ended the season about a month early after needing Tommy John surgery on his nonthrowing elbow.

Carpenter was a pleasant surprise last year in his first full season, mashing 20 home runs and posting a .278 batting average in 118 appearances last year. Meadows took over center field in August after making his MLB debut and flashed a great glove but needs to improve at the plate. Keith, who has yet to make his MLB debut, is projected to be the starting second baseman after tearing it up in the minors and securing a long-term contract with the Tigers.

Figure out the bullpen at the right time

The fourth pillar identified was a bullpen that surges at the end of the season to finish off typically close and nerve-wracking games, and the Tigers bullpen was identified as one that could fit that mold as a team to “keep an eye on.” The Diamondbacks’ bullpen got hot to close the year after trading for Seattle’s Paul Sewald as closer at the deadline, and moving Kevin Ginkel into a setup role to solidify the end of games for Arizona. That gave them the option to use bullpen days as the fourth starter in the playoff run.

On the Tigers bullpen, Schoenfield wrote: “Their bullpen was just 17th in the majors in ERA, but ranked fifth in win probability. There are no big names here, but Tyler Holton (2.11

ERA), Jason Foley (2.61) and Will Vest (2.98) each posted sub-3.00 ERAs while Alex Lange took over as the closer. If Lange can develop more consistency and throw more strikes — he walked 6.1 batters per nine — Detroit’s pen could be good enough.”

Lange isn’t locked into the closer role after the team brought in veterans Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller to increase the talent and competition amongst the late-inning options. Lange, 28, picked up 26 saves in 32 opportunities as the closer last season, but posted a 5.18 ERA with a 17.6% walk rate in his final 43 appearances. Miller, 33, logged a 1.71 ERA with 19 walks and 42 strikeouts across 42 innings in 36 games with one save for the Dodgers last year.

Farm system that can improve team midseason

The Tigers also received a “keep an eye on” designation for the fifth and final category identified by Schoenfield for their strong pipeline of minor league talent that could receive a summer promotion. Last year, the Diamondbacks used their farm system to swing trades for Sewald and Tommy Pham, while elevating Brandon Pfaadt and reliever Andrew Saalfrank for the postseason run.

On the Tigers’ farm, Schoenfield wrote: “Hmm ... maybe Detroit is shaping up as the sleeper team to watch? The Tigers’ farm system is third in McDaniel’s rankings, although they’re not going to be trading any top guys such as Jackson Jobe, Max Clark, Keith, or Jace Jung. Still, there is enough depth here to make a move — and if they are contending in the division, which is not unlikely, they’ll probably need a bat for the lineup.”

Clark, Keith, Jobe and Jung were all ranked as top-100 prospects by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America before the season. ESPN had two more Tigers prospects in its top 100: Meadows and shortstop Kevin McGonigle.

Giants won’t franchise-tag RB Barkley

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. – Star running back Saquon Barkley moved another step closer to free agency Tuesday when the New York Giants elected not to put a franchise tag on the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft.

The 27-year-old Barkley, who is looking for a multi-year deal, and the Giants have until Wednesday to work out a deal.

Barkley played in 14 games last season, missing three because of a high ankle sprain. He ran for 962 yards and six touchdowns and had 41 catches, including four TDs.

Jaguars franchise pass rusher Josh Allen for $24M

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Jaguars used their franchise tag on standout pass rusher Josh Allen on Tuesday, essentially guaranteeing he will play at least another year in Jacksonville.

Allen, the seventh overall pick in the 2019 draft, set a singleseason franchise record with 17½ sacks in the final year of his rookie contract and is 10 shy of the team’s career mark (55) held by Tony Brackens (1996-2003).

Jacksonville’s non-exclusive franchise tender, assuming Allen signs it, would guarantee him $24 million in 2024. The Jaguars and Allen have until July 15 to work out a long-term deal.

The anticipated move followed the team’s release of three defensive starters – cornerback Darious Williams, safety Rayshawn Jenkins and defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi – that created $20 million in salary cap space.

Seahawks’ makeover begins as Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Will Dissly are released

RENTON, Wash. – The Seattle Seahawks’ remodel under new coach Mike Macdonald started Tuesday as the team released safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, and tight end Will Dissly in moves that will give the team a boost of salary cap space ahead of the start of the new league year.

The release of Diggs and Dissly will save Seattle $18 million against the cap. They will get about $6 million in cap relief with the release of Adams but also take on nearly $20 million in dead cap money by releasing him immediately and not waiting until after June 1.

Chargers cut LB Kendricks, clearing $6.5M in cap space

COSTA MESA, Calif. – Linebacker Eric Kendricks was released by the Los Angeles Chargers on Tuesday, a move that frees up $6.5 million in salary cap space.

Kendricks signed a two-year deal with the Chargers last season after eight years with the Minnesota Vikings. He played in 15 games, including 14 starts, and was second on the team with 117 tackles. Kendricks also had 3 1/2 sacks, seven tackles for loss and a forced fumble.

Dolphins release LB Baker for $10M in cap space

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. – The Miami Dolphins released linebacker Jerome Baker on Tuesday, a move that frees up about $9.8 million in salary cap space.

An MCL sprain caused Baker, who had 221⁄2 sacks in his six Miami seasons, to miss four games late last season. He then had to have season-ending wrist surgery following Miami’s regular season finale.