How Tarik Skubal has rocketed to the top AL Cy Young contender
It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Or, at least that’s what the Detroit Tigers have been telling us, year after year after year — y’know, over each of the past five seasons in which they’ve entered May with a losing record. (We’re not counting 2020, in which they were at .500 entering May — 0-0, because the coronavirus pandemic pushed the season’s start to late July.)
But this season? The Tigers won’t need a post-April push to approach .500; they’re already there, at 16-12, with two games to go before May. Not only that: They need just one win in the final two games of April (Monday and Tuesday against the St. Louis Cardinals) to clinch their second winning month of the season. (Who can forget the glorious 3-0 March run in Chicago?)
Likewise, left-hander Tarik Skubal looked poised for an awful Sunday against the Kansas City Royals, as he started by allowing a double (of the seeing-eye variety, skittering just over third baseman Matt Vierling’s glove) and a run-scoring single — down 1-0 after seven pitches.
His finish, though, was something to behold: Skubal retired 20 of the next 21 batters, mixing four-seam fastballs and changeups to baffle the Royals — “Pitching in and off (the plate),” as Skubal put it, “not even throwing strikes, just get them to take the first pitch so that way they can't ambush the second one.” — and pick up his AL-best fourth victory of the season.
“It was an impressive outing, by an impressive competitor,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said postgame Sunday.
In the second inning, Skubal locked in with the fastball. In the third, he found the changeup, and finished with one run allowed on four hits over seven innings. In all, it was Skubal’s fifth start (out of six) in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer, tied for second-most in the American League.
In Hinch’s words: “It looked like he hit another gear. That's what the big boys do, the guys you expect to anchor a staff."
Most importantly, it was the kind of start you’d expect from the Tiger we (and a few others) labeled “a dark horse Cy Young Award contender.” And as we head into May — cue your Justin Timberlake GIFs — it’s time to take a look at the AL Cy Young race (which is, uh, actually full of dark horses) so far:
(All statistics entering Monday.)
Honorable mentions — Tyler Anderson, Angels; Erick Fedde, White Sox: They’ve got the numbers to get in the discussion, at fourth and fifth in bWAR, respectively, among AL pitchers, but they’re not likely to pitch many meaningful games down the stretch, as the Halos and ChiSox are a combined 16-40.
Seth Lugo, Royals: It’s tough to argue with
the results so far from the 34-year-old — especially after he diced up Tigers hitters in his seven innings Friday afternoon. But considering this is just his third season as a starter — in nine MLB campaigns — he might need to show a little more, especially since his strikeout rate (5.4 per nine innings) is easily the worst on this list.
Kutter Crawford, Red Sox: Already arguably the second-best FGCU alumnus (behind former teammate Chris Sale) in MLB history, the 28-year-old opened the season by allowing just two runs in 211⁄3 innings before doubling that (four runs, three earned) in Friday’s start. One stat that suggests he could be coming back to earth soon: he’s yet to allow a home run this season after giving up 17 in 1291⁄3 innings last season.
Tanner Houck, Red Sox: Continuing our trip through the BoSox rotation, the 2017 firstrounder is third in the AL in ERA (1.60), WHIP
(0.915) and strikeouts (41). He has also put up a couple of signature starts, with a three-hit, nine-strikeout shutout of the Guardians on April 17 and then striking out nine Cubs in just 62⁄3 innings Sunday on ESPN’s national night game. But the 27-year-old might be the second-most improbable name on this list, considering he finished last season with a 5.01 ERA in 106 innings.
Ronel Blanco, Astros: The most improbable arm on this list? That would be the 30-year-old who debuted in 2022 and entered this season with a 4.78 ERA in 24 career appearances, including just seven starts. Then again, start No. 8 was the gem of the season, as Blanco needed just 105 pitches to no-hit the Blue Jays (with seven strikeouts and two walks). Almost as impressive was his most recent start, in which he allowed just two earned runs in the noted launching pad of Mexico City, leaving him with a 1.65 ERA and 0.918 WHIP that are fourth in the AL.
Logan Gilbert, Mariners: The 2018 draft class checks in, as the No. 14 overall pick from that summer leads the AL in strikeouts (44) and innings (40) and is No. 2 in WHIP (0.800) while walking just nine batters. But home runs are been a bit of an issue, with five allowed in five starts to push his ERA just above 2 (2.03, to be exact), good for eighth in the AL.
Jose Berrios, Blue Jays: Given the mostly unheralded nature of the pitchers we’ve run through so far, we’ll make this 29-year-old —one of only two non-honorable mentions here with an All-Star nod (two, actually) — it’s tempting to make him the favorite, especially with a 212⁄3-inning scoreless streak (which ended in Thursday’s loss to the Royals) that put his ERA at an AL-best 1.23. Then again, that’s the only major stat in which he ranks among the top five, which would explain why he’s still at +2000 to win the Cy Young (per BetMGM).
Corbin Burnes, Orioles: While we’re on the topic of experience, we arrive at this 29-yearold in his first AL season. In the NL, however, he won a Cy Young (2021) and has three other top-eight finishes in Cy Young voting. This season, he’s merely lurking behind the stat leaders, with a 2.55 ERA (11th in the AL), 35 strikeouts and eight walks in 351⁄3 innings. His WHIP sits at 0.934, good for fifth in the AL; that and his award history goes a long way toward explaining why he’s tied for the best Cy Young odds from BetMGM, along with … well, you know …
Tarik Skubal, Tigers: Our other 2018 draft pick, taken 241 picks after Gilbert, followed his September 2023 AL Pitcher of the Month nod with a March and April in which he has struck out 41 while walking just six over 362⁄3 innings (with a 19-inning walk-free run before Sunday’s free pass in the seventh inning), dropping his Cy Young odds from BetMGM to just +350. His 1.72 ERA is only sixth in the AL, but he’s tied for third in strikeouts and No. 1 in WHIP (0.736). He’s also the youngest pitcher on this list, which means that even if he doesn’t come out on top this season, we’ll be having this discussion for years to come.
One final reminder: A dominant April (and March, as the seasons start earlier and earlier) doesn’t guarantee a Cy Young nod — but it doesn’t hurt, either. Just consider reigning AL winner Gerrit Cole’s opening month last season: A 1.11 ERA with 44 strikeouts and 11 walks over 402⁄3 innings.
That’s not to say, though, that any of the pitchers who’ve bombed this month are out of contention, either; reigning NL winner Blake Snell began 2023 with his worst month, posting a 5.48 ERA with 26 strikeouts and 18 — EIGHTEEN! — walks in 23 innings.
Don’t throw away those Kenta Maeda Cy Young bet slips, is what we’re saying.