How we can provide enough electricity for all of our EVs

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s order banning the sale of new gasoline vehicles in California by 2035 marked an audacious attempt to hasten the state’s transition toward climate-friendlier policies.

But the state’s likely shift toward millions more electric cars and trucks underscored a question that energy planners have been grappling with for several years: Will California have enough electricity to power all those vehicles?

The short answer is yes. “There’s no technical or economic reason why the grid can’t support the full electrification of vehicles,” Chris Nelder, head of the EV-Grid Integration initiative at the Rocky Mountain Institute, told me.

The long answer is more complicated. California’s electrical capacity today wouldn’t be sufficient to provide power for 26 million EV cars and light trucks if all the vehicles in the state transitioned away from gasoline by 2035. “You’ll need to beef up the grid,” Nelder says.

Doubts about California’s ability to serve a vastly expanded fleet of electric vehicles were intensified by rolling blackouts imposed during two August days by the California Independent System Operator, or California ISO, which manages the state’s electrical grid. But experts say the rare confluence of circumstances that caused those outages don’t have anything to do with that issue.

Knowing how much more electrical capacity California will have a decade or two from now is a calculation bristling with uncertainties.

These include the pace of the transition away from gasoline-powered cars and the nature of the net technology — batterypowered electric cars? Hydrogen-fueled vehicles? Or some technology as yet lurking beyond the horizon? And will EVs become more efficient over time, reducing their demand for electricity to travel given distances?

The terms of Newsom’s order leaves open the pace of change in the transportation sector. Californians will still be allowed to drive gasoline-fueled vehicles after 2035, and to buy them in the used car market or import new vehicles from other states. They just won’t be allowed to buy new ones in-state.

Increases in demand at the grid level have been held down by improved efficiency in electric equipment and appliances and the growth of “behind-the-meter” solar — that is, residential installations, says Erica Bowman, director of resource and environmental planning and strategy at Southern California Edison.

By 2045, she says, Edison expects a 60% increase in demand relative to today.

That requires a massive investment in infrastructure. “You would have to build more generation, and you would also have to build more (transmission) capacity on your grid.”

Edison projects that the necessary change would require about $75 billion in transmission and distribution investment at California ISO’s level, but Bowman says that’s doable in that time frame.

The most important element in the state’s transition to EVs may well be coordination, to counteract the effect of fragmented responsibilities for electrical generation, distribution and planning.

“This is a very difficult thing to do,” Nelder says of planning a long-range transition of fundamental technologies. “It’s tricky.” The state will have to meet the growing demands of electricity users without overbuilding, which would raise the possibility of sticking consumers with unnecessary costs.

“You’re going to be criticized for overbuilding and criticized for underbuilding,” Nelder says. “Executing the evolution of the grid has been described as rebuilding an airplane while it’s in flight.”

For all that, California has been in the forefront of a necessary change in how we generate electricity and how we use it. The benefits of the transition are manifest — cleaner air and a smaller contribution to climate change among them.

Newsom’s goal of ending the sale of new gas-guzzling vehicles by 2035 is part of the broader change, but a necessary component. There may be many obstacles, but the lack of electricity shouldn’t be among them. Meeting the challenge of energy capacity is doable, and it needs to be done.